For decades, U.S. rural county population generally declined while metropolitan county population grew robustly. The 2020 pandemic disrupted these trends, with potentially significant implications for community banks. Based on pre-pandemic data, community bank deposit growth correlated strongly with population growth. However, deposit growth kept pace with population in micropolitan counties but lagged in micropolitan and rural counties. The response of community bank loan portfolios to population growth also displayed different patterns among county types. Commercial real estate loan shares rose and residential loan shares fell, but at different rates. Commercial and industrial loan shares rose only in micropolitan counties. Agricultural loan shares rose only in metropolitan counties. If new population patterns persist, these relationships may materially affect the business models of community banks.
Last Updated: November 19, 2025