The relatively low profitability reported by community banks since the 2008 financial crisis has sparked concerns about the core profitability of the community banking model. This paper constructs an econometric model using 31 years of data to estimate the impact of macroeconomic shocks on industry average pretax return on assets (ROA). After accounting for macroeconomic factors, the remaining unexplained variation is considered to be the core component of profitability. Core ROA is found to have been relatively stable between 1985 and 2015. It trended downward over the 1990s, but the effect of the financial crisis on industry composition has led to a reversal and a modest increase in core profitability. More than 80 percent of the post-crisis decline in profitability can be explained by negative macroeconomic shocks.
Last Updated: January 1, 2016