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OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC and OTS  
        Proposal  
        Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking  
        and  
        Proposed Supervisory Guidance for  
        Operational Risk AMA for Regulatory  
        Capital  
        The Treatment of Insurance against  
Operational Risk 
 
August 4, 2003  
        U.S. Federal Register - Vol. 68 No. 149 pages 45900 to 45988  
  
Prepared by Marsh Inc.
         
November 2003  
 
  
OCC, Federal Reserve, 
        FDIC and OTS Proposal  
        Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking  
        and  
        Proposed Supervisory Guidance for Operational Risk  
        AMA for Regulatory Capital  
 
        The Treatment of Insurance against Operational Risk  
  
Introduction to Comments 
 
This paper contains Marsh Inc.'s comments 
        concerning the ANPR and proposed supervisory guidance of the OCC, 
        Federal Reserve, FDIC and OTS ("the Agencies") contained in the U.S. 
        Federal Register, Vol. 68, No. 149, dated August 4, 2003. Marsh has also 
        provided comments on the Basel Committee Third Consultative Paper and 
        European Commission Third Consultation Paper that are very similar to 
        our comments that follow. One significant difference is that, in this 
        paper, we have omitted our comments on the treatment of insurance for 
        the Basel Standardized Approach because that approach is not applicable 
        in the U.S. Also, because the Agencies' proposal differs from the Basel 
        and EC papers by providing definitions of "operational risk loss" and 
        "operational risk event", we have adjusted our comments in order to 
        address certain implications of these definitions. Finally we have 
        modified our discussion of the haircuts for the duration of insurance 
        policies and timeliness of insurance payouts in light of the Agencies' 
        treatment of insurance policy duration.  
Marsh  
Marsh Inc. is the world's largest 
        insurance broker and risk management consultant. We are one of the 
        companies of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC). Other MMC companies 
        include both Mercer Oliver Wyman, whose major specialty is risk 
        management consulting on issues specific to financial institutions, and 
        National Economic Research Associates (NERA), who are experts in 
        economic valuation and have performed a benchmarking study of banks' 
        preparedness for the Basel II operational risk requirements.  
The Federal Register Proposal of August 
        2003 as well as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's Third 
        Consultative Paper dated April 2003 and the European Commission 
        Consultation Paper dated July 2003 provide a major step forward in 
        setting appropriate standards for the measurement of operational risk. 
        We believe that our role as insurance broker and risk management 
        consultant makes us especially well qualified to comment on the 
        treatment of insurance in the Agencies' proposal and will with certain 
        exceptions in our general comments confine our comments to provisions in 
        the proposal that address this topic.  
Insurance as an Imperfect Hedge 
 
In light of the fact that insurance 
        policies indemnify banks for hundreds of millions of dollars in 
        operational risk losses annually, insurance is clearly a major tool for 
        banks in mitigating operational risk. However, insurance provides 
        imperfect protection against these risks. In fact, it is Marsh's primary 
        role to advocate our policyholder clients' interests in dealing with 
        insurers in both the placement of insurance and in helping them deal 
        with claims. In this role, we are aware of the times when insurance does 
        not live up to our clients' desires.  
We have reviewed the proposals contained 
        in the Federal Register to address the effect of insurance on banks' 
        operational risk capital. As to the regulatory concerns underlying these 
        proposals, we concur with the Agencies that it is appropriate to require 
        that an AMA banking institution determine the portion within the full 
        range of its operational risk exposure that its specific insurance 
        contracts cover, to address the differences among insurers in terms of 
        credit quality and other issues of timeliness and uncertainty of 
        payment, and to consider the implications of the duration of coverage.
         
Despite limitations of insurance as a 
        perfect hedge, we believe that insurance today can in fact effectively 
        address a significant portion of many potentially severe operational 
        risks. We also expect that future developments will lead to products 
        that improve the ability of the insurance arrangements to address 
        effectively a broader range of operational risk. It is important, in our 
        view, that the provisions for the measurement of the insurance capital 
        credit create incentives for such improvements in the functioning of 
        insurance and reflect as closely as possible the actual risk mitigation 
        effect of insurance.  
Economic and Regulatory Capital 
 
The Basel Committee and the Agencies have 
        the goal of promulgating regulatory capital that is similar in concept 
        to banks' own internal models of economic capital and reflective of the 
        bank's actual operational risks. Implicit in this goal is to create 
        regulatory incentives that are consistent with banks' economic 
        incentives and thereby to encourage sound risk management and to avoid 
        inconsistencies that could produce regulatory arbitrage.  
The AMA option that will allow 
        sophisticated banks to set regulatory capital on the basis of internal 
        models essentially demands that a common model underlies estimates of 
        both regulatory and economic capital. Achieving this would require that 
        minimum capital should neither overstate, nor understate, the actual 
        protection afforded to the bank through the use of insurance. Our 
        recommendations and the supporting comments are designed to help the 
        Agencies in achieving this goal, i.e. to reflect appropriately the 
        actual risk mitigation effect of insurance.  
Marsh's Specific Comments about the 
        Proposals  
In the discussion that follows, Marsh 
        will argue that the 20% limitation on the insurance credit for 
        operational risk is inconsistent with the principle of matching 
        regulatory and economic capital calculations and should be modified. We 
        will suggest clarification of how the operational risk treats how both 
        operational risk capital and the insurance credit address historical 
        losses and their development over time and of how insurance addresses 
        expected loss (EL). We also make other recommendations that address some 
        of the specific wording of the proposed Supervisory Guidelines 
        concerning measurement of the credit for insurance in mitigating 
        operational risk for AMA banks.  
Recommendation US-1  
The 20% cap on insurance credits for 
        AMA banks should be eliminated.  
Comments  
The proposed regulations require that 
        credible models and sound quantitative arguments back up any calculation 
        of regulatory capital and mitigation through insurance. The proposal has 
        identified the areas where insurance is an incomplete hedge against 
        operational risk, and the Agencies will require that banks address these 
        areas explicitly in order to validate the credit for insurance. Thus, 
        even with no cap at all on the credit for insurance, a bank that 
        complies with these requirements and that is guided by appropriate 
        regulatory supervision could not claim an excessive capital credit for 
        insurance.  
On the other hand, the cap may stifle 
        innovation by potentially separating the economic effect of insurance 
        from the regulatory credit it receives. The insurance contract is 
        undergoing constant innovation, and what might be true regarding its 
        current impact is not likely to remain true through time. Indeed, a 
        foreseeable consequence of the capital Accord itself will be to spur 
        innovation and to produce future design enhancements to the insurance 
        product. This is even now occurring. Although we are certain that the 
        Agencies do not intend to inhibit positive evolution of the insurance 
        product, we raise this as a possible counter-productive and 
        unintentional consequence of the 20% limitation. That will happen, if, 
        because of the cap, too many policyholders forego potential mitigation 
        by insurance when they find themselves unable to receive an otherwise 
        appropriate credit for the true mitigation effect of their insurance 
        programs. Already we sense that the anticipated 20% cap may be 
        influencing what some banks think will be an appropriate purchase of 
        insurance.  
We believe that it is at least 
        theoretically possible that existing insurance programs could mitigate 
        more than 20% of the economic capital for operational risk, at least for 
        unexpected loss. We will have more to say in our next set of comments 
        concerning Unexpected Loss(UL) and Expected Loss(EL). For now, suffice 
        it to say that insurance may address both EL and UL but differently.
         
The separation of future UL and EL 
        provides the context for our belief that, even though insurance may 
        typically address a relatively very small percentage of the total number 
        of operational risk losses and even the total loss amounts at the 
        average bank, the effect of insurance upon the UL for certain kinds of 
        operational risk is greatly leveraged. This is the case because the most 
        common losses at most banks will fall within the EL and will have no 
        insurance benefit either because of the deductible or because they are 
        from perils that are typically not insured. As opposed to the small, 
        frequent losses, the most severe losses at banks have a much greater 
        chance of having insurance apply. In particular, insurance normally 
        deals quite effectively, albeit with some delay, with perils which 
        result in damage to physical assets and the resulting business 
        interruptions as well as with theft of bank assets. Furthermore, while 
        the benefit may be somewhat uneven, the insurers still pay hundreds of 
        millions of dollars each year to address banks' legal risks through the 
        various lines of liability insurance so that there is substantial 
        mitigation of legal risk as well.  
Notes on the 2002 Loss Data Collection 
        Exercise of the Basel Committee  
As part of our efforts to understand the 
        potential mitigating value of insurance on capital for AMA banks, we 
        arranged for the construction of a model around the Basel Committee's 
        2002 Loss Data Collection Exercise (LDCE) data. Based upon this 
        analysis, we conclude that the data collected is not inconsistent with a 
        world in which insurance mitigates a substantial portion of Unexpected 
        Loss and in which economic capital is reduced by even as much as 20 to 
        40%. We do not claim that this is an accurate estimate of a true 
        value for any specific bank or even an average for the 89 banks in the 
        LDCE as the limitations of the published data preclude us from making 
        such an assessment. But, as it pertains to the proposed 20% limit, we 
        cannot exclude the possibility that many banks will find 
        themselves at the 20% limit, thus potentially implying the unintended 
        consequences noted above.  
Although the LDCE data shows that overall 
        relatively few losses have associated insurance recoverable (1.7%), this 
        result is consistent with insurance policies with significant 
        deductibles. The data does show that larger losses are more likely to 
        have an associated insurance recovery, again consistent with this view. 
        It is impossible to determine from the published LDCE data how many 
        losses without an associated insurance recoverable might have been 
        properly covered by insurance but simply were not large enough to exceed 
        the deductible.  
In summary, we believe that the Agencies 
        should remove the 20% cap because  
• with the modeling requirements in the 
        rules, the cap is unnecessary,  
        • the cap may stifle innovation,  
        • the practical effect may be to discourage beneficial opportunities for 
        risk mitigation, and  
        • contrary to the purpose of Basel II, the cap engenders basing 
        decisions upon purely regulatory requirements rather than upon the 
        underlying economic reality.  
Recommendation US-2  
In the ANPR, the Agencies have asked 
        if the broad operational risk structure incorporates all the key 
        elements that should be dealt with by the rules. We believe there are at 
        least two areas for improvement-added clarity in how the regulations 
        deal with potential historical loss development and in the way the 
        regulations deal with insurance against expected loss (EL). 
 
Note that we are aware that the Basel 
        Committee, in its October press release, has indicated that the Accord 
        will address only unexpected loss (UL) and not EL for Credit Risk. For 
        similar reasons that led to that modification, the operational risk 
        rules may be amended in a similar manner, but we do not know whether the 
        Agencies will in fact drop the requirement for banks to provide for EL 
        for operational risk. Therefore, these comments assume that capital or 
        other means to account for EL for operational risk will still be 
        required.  
A. The rules should provide greater 
        clarity whether the operational risk capital must take into account a 
        bank's particular risk of adverse development of its historical losses.
 
If the bank must provide capital for 
        the potential adverse development of its portfolio of historical losses, 
        there is also the question of how to value mitigation through insurance 
        of these losses. While the issues of timeliness, credit rating and 
        uncertainty of payment would presumably still apply to this element 
        operational risk, any cap on the value of insurance should not apply.
         
B. In addition to reserves and budgets 
        as cited by the Agencies1 as potential alternatives to 
        capital in providing for EL, insurance can mitigate a portion of EL. The 
        Agencies should, therefore, if EL remains part of what the banks must 
        address, acknowledge that the bank's insurance coverage can provide a 
        portion of EL.  
Comments  
A. Historical loss development
 
Each bank will have a different profile 
        of exposure to events (herein called "historical losses") known prior to 
        a given date when a bank determines its regulatory capital, and these 
        profiles may differ substantially among banks and within a given bank 
        over time. In dealing with a bank's particular portfolio of these 
        historical losses, there should be greater clarity and consistency as to 
        the intended make-up of an AMA bank's "Operational Risk Exposure," 
        defined in the proposed regulations as "the potential operational losses 
        that the banking institution faces at a soundness standard consistent 
        with a 99.9% confidence level over a one-year period.1 
There appears to be a possible conflict 
        between (1) the proposed definition of an operational risk loss2 
        as GAAP loss, which implies addressing both historical loss development 
        and future losses and (2) the implication of much of the industry's 
        discussion to date of operational risk capital and specifically the 
        Agencies' discussion of reserves in the context of EL versus UL, where 
        the implication appears to be for capital to address future losses only 
        and not adverse development of historical losses.3 
 
Operational risk losses, particularly 
        those involving litigation, often extend over many years from the date 
        of the event that gives rise to the loss until the date of final 
        disposition. Until resolved, estimates of the ultimate cost of these 
        loss contingencies can be subject to substantial variability and risk 
        over time. Under the U.S. GAAP accounting treatment of such a loss under 
        FASB 54, the bank will not have a loss on its books until the 
        bank either incurs expenses such as legal or investigatory costs or 
        establishes a reserve based upon the determination that it is probable 
        that a liability has been created and the amount of loss can be 
        reasonably estimated5.  
How do the Agencies intend that the 
        capital requirement will address the risk of greater than anticipated 
        loss development arising from the inventory of liability case reserves 
        for historical losses (or for that matter other operational risk 
        contingencies) as of the date that the required capital is determined? 
        If the capital itself does not address loss development, adverse loss 
        development might nevertheless drain capital. On the other hand, if the 
        capital is intended to address historical loss development, to what 
        specifically does the 99.9% one-year probability apply-presumably the 
        GAAP treatment, i.e. the reserves for the inventory of historical losses 
        one year hence less the reserves for the inventory now plus any payments 
        during the year?6  
If there is insurance against loss 
        development and capital calculations are to address historical events, 
        how should the insurance rules apply? Since historical losses represent 
        a specific inventory of known events, the effect of insurance would 
        typically be much more easily measurable than against future losses. In 
        the event that the capital calculations do address historical losses and 
        the 20% cap or some other cap on the insurance credit is retained, then, 
        in dealing with such losses, the bank should address the factors 
        affecting uncertainty and timeliness of payment, but the cap should 
        clearly not apply to historical losses.'  
B. Insurance and EL  
Insurance premiums, as promulgated by 
        insurers, typically include a provision for expected losses, a provision 
        for risk (which becomes profit to the insurer if the losses come in at 
        or below the expected level) and provisions for expenses of the insurer 
        and perhaps an offset for anticipated investment income. From the 
        insured bank's perspective, therefore, some portion of the premium would 
        typically address EL. This means in theory that a bank could show that 
        it had provided for a portion of its EL, by demonstrating the amount of 
        EL imbedded in its insurance premiums.  
In summary, clarifying the treatment of 
        EL and UL and historical loss development will assist the Agencies and 
        the banks in understanding the effect of insurance.  
Specific Comments-Detailed 
        Calculations of the Insurance Credit  
Like the Agencies, we believe that the 
        following issues should be addressed in calculating the credit for 
        insurance for AMA banks:  
-Uncertainty and delays in payment, 
        which includes both the credit risk of the insurer and the possibility 
        of disputed claims.  
-Degree to which the insurance 
        addresses the actual operational risks of the bank. -Policy provisions 
        that limit coverage including but not limited to policy limits and 
        deductibles.  
We believe that the proposed rules do 
        address the above. However, we also believe the rules could be improved 
        in a way that will better achieve the underlying purpose of the proposal 
        but better reflect the actual functioning of insurance as well as the 
        actual degree by which insurance mitigates operational risk.  
Recommendation US-3  
Supervisory Standard S30, the 
        Agencies' proposal currently reads in part:  
"The policy is provided through a 
        third party that has a minimum claims paying ability rating of A."
         
Marsh suggests that Agencies modify 
        this wording so that the calculation of any offset for insurance should 
        apply explicit haircuts for the credit and timing risk associated with 
        the particular insurance program of the bank that addresses both the 
        credit quality of the specific insurers and anticipated duration of the 
        outstanding losses as well as a discount for the anticipated delays in 
        payment.  
Comments  
While we believe that the requirement to 
        reflect the credit risk of collection of insurance proceeds from 
        insurers is appropriate and consistent with other provisions of the 
        proposal, we do not believe that an arbitrary cut-off at an A rating is 
        appropriate. A or higher rated insurers have some probability of default 
        and, even if they may have a higher likelihood of default, A- and B+ 
        rated insurers are still likely to pay their claims. Furthermore, the 
        credit risk increases with the length of time that the insured loss 
        remains unpaid. So it is appropriate to take into account both the 
        credit quality and duration just as in any credit analysis.  
Recommendation US-4  
Supervisory Standard S30, the 
        Agencies' proposal currently reads in part:  
 
        "The insurance policy must have an initial term of one year."  
 
        And  
"An institution should discount (i.e., 
        apply its own estimates of haircuts) the impact of insurance coverage to 
        take into account factors, which may limit the likelihood or size of 
        claim payouts. Among these factors are the remaining term of the policy, 
        especially when it is less than one year ... and the possibility that 
        the policy can be cancelled before the contractual expiration." 
 
Recommendation:  
Marsh suggests that the Agencies 
        should modify the first quotation wording to read: "The insurance policy 
        must have an initial term of at least one year."  
Marsh also suggests that the mere 
        presence of a cancellation provision or a remaining policy term of less 
        than one year do not necessarily require a haircut.  
Comments  
It is true that the insurance market 
        typically provides one-year policies. However, the Agencies should find 
        longer-term policies acceptable hence our first point that the initial 
        term needs to be at least one year rather than must be one year. 
 
On the other hand, in insurance, 
        continuous contracts and a policy term of more than one year is 
        atypical. The Basel Committee proposal on policy term appears to require 
        a pro-rata haircut for  
the degree to which the remaining term is 
        less than one year and no credit in the last ninety days. We do not know 
        what the Agencies may have in mind in terms of haircuts for policy term 
        and so we will provide the same comments as we did the Basel Committee, 
        especially since we believe that haircuts are appropriate but only to 
        the extent the insured institution believes that its policy will be 
        cancelled, non-renewed or renewed on less favorable terms.  
To require durations in excess of one 
        year or non-standard cancellation or renewal provisions, in effect, 
        would require the banks to obtain insurance on terms and conditions that 
        are highly unusual in the marketplace. Such a requirement could result 
        in far less than optimal insurance from the few insurers willing to 
        adjust their contracts to provide provisions that address this 
        requirement.  
If the bank does not or cannot achieve 
        these special provisions from its insurers, there could in practice be 
        very large fluctuations each time the bank calculates its operational 
        risk capital credit, reflecting solely where the bank is in its policy 
        term, for example when the insurance is six months rather than one year 
        from renewal. This fluctuation would not reflect any real added risk.
         
Since renewal of an insurance policy is 
        typical, there is no more reason to assume renewal will not occur than 
        to assume any other adverse change in the bank's situation. If 
        non-renewal or cancellation is expected by the bank or does occur, then 
        the bank will have to address that in its next quarterly or semi-annual 
        capital calculation just as it must reflect any other change in 
        circumstances.  
On the other hand, if the bank has 
        decided not to renew a particular insurance program or believes that it 
        will not be able to renew or will have very different terms and 
        conditions, then it should reflect this in its AMA calculations. 
 
Recommendation US-5  
Supervisory Standard S30, the 
        Agencies' proposal currently reads in part:  
"The insurance policy has no 
        exclusions or limitations based upon regulatory action or in the for the 
        receiver or liquidator of a failed bank."  
Marsh sueaests that the Agencies 
        modify this wordina to the effect that there is no credit if the 
        insurance policv is specifically voided in the event of regulatory 
        action or excludes claims by the reeulator or receiver of a failed bank. 
        However, we sueeest that the Agencies allow for a liability policy to 
        exclude coverage for fines, penalties or punitive damages but provide 
        that such a policy exclusion must be taken into account in the AMA 
        insurance mitigation calculations.  
Comments  
While the proposal reflects valid 
        concerns of the regulators about policies that will not cover claims by 
        them or by liquidators, the current wording in it could be interpreted 
        to require coverage that is abnormal or even against public policy. In 
        some jurisdictions where fines and penalties by regulators could be 
        assessed, insurance against them is unenforceable due to the belief that 
        insurance of fines and penalties removes the incentive against 
        inappropriate behavior created by potential fines and penalties. 
        Therefore, we believe that the bank must be in a position to accept 
        typical exclusions of coverage for fines, penalties and punitive 
        damages, especially as it may be against public policy for insurers to 
        indemnify the banks for these.  
We have suggested a change that, without 
        preventing collection of claims by regulators or bankruptcy trustees, 
        addresses the public policy issues as long as the bank reflects these 
        limitations in its calculations.  
Recommendation US-6  
Supervisory Standard S30, the 
        Agencies' proposal currently reads in part:  
"...for example, the institution must 
        also demonstrate that insurance policies used as the basis for the 
        adjustment have a history of timely payouts. If claims have not been 
        paid on a timely basis, the institution must exclude that policy from 
        the operational risk capital calculation."  
and  
"An institution should discount (i.e., 
        apply its own estimates of haircuts) the impact of insurance coverage to 
        take into account factors, which may limit the likelihood or size of 
        claim payouts. Among these factors are ... the willingness and ability 
        of an insurer to pay a claim in a timely manner, the legal risk that a 
        claim can be disputed...."  
Marsh suggests that of the two 
        approaches-no credit and haircuts- that appear in S30 that the Agencies 
        require haircuts for timeliness and uncertainty of payment rather than 
        exclusion for claims that have a history of not being paid on a timely 
        basis.  
Comments  
There are several reasons to avoid a 
        clear line between credit and no credit where the claims do not have a 
        history of being paid on a timely basis. The first of these is that many 
        of the coverages that banks carry may have, at that bank, no history of 
        claims. This is especially true of coverages where relatively remote 
        tail risk only is transferred. Certainly, just because the bank may have 
        had no claims under a particular coverage and therefore no history of 
        timely payment, the institution should not forego credit. On the other 
        hand a history of prompt payment does not guarantee future prompt 
        payments.  
Even where there is a history of delays 
        in payment, the reason for the delay may not be applicable to current 
        circumstances. For example, if the bank had a large property insurance 
        claim and took many months to document its loss, this hardly means that 
        property insurance is worthless as a mitigant. And if the bank has taken 
        steps so that it is prepared to document the next claim, it is likely 
        that the next claim payment will be timely.  
Finally, there is clearly a question as 
        to what is an objective standard for timely payment and an acceptable 
        history of same.  
For all these reasons a haircut approach 
        to uncertainty of payment is much better than a clear line. 
 
Recommendation US-7  
Supervisory Standard S30, the 
        Agencies' proposal currently reads in part:  
"The policy coverage has been 
        explicitly mapped to the actual operational risk exposure of the 
        institution."  
Marsh suggests that the Agencies 
        modify this wording to clarify that the insurance mitigation 
        calculations must reflect the bank's insurance coverage in a manner that 
        is transparent in its relationship to and consistent with the actual 
        likelihood and impact of loss used in the bank's overall determination 
        of its operational risk capital.  
Comments  
For the purposes of this comment, we 
        assume that the intent of this provision is to ensure that the bank's 
        treatment of insurance reflects the bank's own particular array of 
        likelihood and impact from operational risk in such a way that the 
        resulting adjustments to capital are justifiable. However, we are 
        concerned that the word "explicitly" could be interpreted to require 
        direct mapping.  
Such a requirement for direct mapping 
        would be problematic because insurance policies and coverage do not 
        map directly to the Basel Committee's Loss Event type classifications. 
        In some cases, insurance policies extend to multiple event types and in 
        other cases multiple insurance coverages apply to a single loss event 
        type. Although direct mapping' of loss eventtypes to insurance is in 
        theory a reasonable and logical process, when used in the context of 
        operational risk and insurance, it provides an insufficient result 
        because it ignores various complexities that accompany the operational 
        risk/insurance relationship.  
The determination of insurance coverage 
        is often a detailed process that involves the consideration of numerous 
        circumstantial factors that might give rise to policy limitations or 
        exclusions or even void coverage. Accordingly, the composite elements 
        from which a determination of insurance coverage is made cannot be 
        captured in a one-dimensional category.  
Given the complexity of the 
        insurance/operational risk relationship, which makes direct mapping 
        problematic, and the benefits to be achieved through a more 
        comprehensive modeling, we have suggested the change from wording that 
        might imply a requirement for direct mapping to wording that requires 
        transparency and consistency.  
 
        ________________________________ 
1 See Federal Register Vol. 
        68, No. 149 p. 45943. "The Agencies have considered both reserving and 
        budgeting as potential methods for EL offsets." This statement implies 
        that the Agencies have not considered insurance.  
1 See Definitions in the 
        Federal Register Vol. 68, No. 149 p. 45979  
2 Ibid. "The financial impact 
        associated with an operational event that is recorded in the 
        institution's financial statements consistent with Generally Accepted 
        Accounting Principles (GAAP)."  
3 Ibid. p. 45985. "Given that 
        EL is looking beyond current losses to losses that will be incurred in 
        the future.... "  
4 See Financial Accounting 
        Standards Board, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 5, 
        March 1975. The reserve amount will reflect what is determined to be 
        probable and not what is possible or remote.  
5 Once established, it is 
        normal for such a reserve, called "a case reserve" by insurers, to 
        fluctuate over time up to the final disposition of the claim. The 
        inventory of all losses, i.e. aggregate amount of case reserves, along 
        with the cumulative partial payments of defense costs and indemnity 
        payments on these cases usually but not always increases over time. In 
        addition, losses may emerge that have occurred in the past but are 
        provided for later. These losses are called IBNR or "incurred but not 
        reported." The process of the change in the valuation of losses over 
        time is called "loss development."  
6 For example, assume that a 
        bank has US$1 billion in loss reserves for litigation on 12/31/2008 and 
        pays $250 million in indemnity for judgments and settlements and for 
        litigation expense during 2009 for the historical cases and any new 
        cases that emerge during 2009. If then there are then $1.5 billion in 
        reserves on 12/31/2009, the GAAP losses would be $750 million. Was the 
        capital (plus allowable EL from reserves, budgeting and insurance) on 
        12/31/2008 intended to provide 99.9% confidence for the $750 million of 
        adverse loss development (plus non-litigation related operational risk 
        losses)? GAAP and the one-year period specification would imply this.
         
Or is the bank to ignore the risk of 
        adverse development and to address only occurrences (or events 
        discovered or claims) during 2009? If this is what the capital is 
        intended to address, is it the recognition of these cases during 2009 or 
        their ultimate cost?  
For example (and ignoring for now any 
        portfolio effect), if there is a large unsettled loss with a reserve for 
        the EL of $100 million and where the insurance limit is $200 million 
        with a $25 million deductible and the one year UL is $50 million, then 
        the value of the insurance will, depending upon the credit rating of the 
        insurer and any reservation of rights by the insurer, offset $75 million 
        of the EL and all of the UL or $125 million of the $150 million. It 
        would clearly be inappropriate to limit the effect of insurance to 20% 
        or $30 million unless there is quite a low likelihood of an actual 
        recovery from the insurers.  
1 Direct mapping" refers to 
        the process of matching an operational risk event category (such appear 
        in the Definitions section of the Proposed Supervisory Guidance, p. 
        45979 of the Federal Register) to insurance products (as commonly 
        known.). For example, one might map the operational risk event category 
        "Internal Fraud" to the insurance product known as Banker's Blanket Bond 
        (BBB). Unfortunately for the mapping exercise, neither are all internal 
        fraud events covered by this policy (e.g. internal fraud without the 
        intent of personal gain is usually not covered by the BBB) nor does the 
        BBB cover only internal fraud (e.g. external theft of the bank's 
        securities would often be covered by the BBB).  
 
 
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