via email
WORLD SAVINGS BANK
November 3, 2003
Public
Information Room
Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency
2520 E Street, SW
Mailstop 1-5
Washington, D.C. 20219
|
Robert E. Feldman
Executive Secretary
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
550 17th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20429
Attention: Comments/OES |
Ms. Jennifer J. Johnson, Secretary
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
20th Street and Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, D.C. 20551 |
Regulation Comments
Chief Counsel's Office
Office of Thrift Supervision
1700 G. Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20522 |
RE: Supplemental Comment on Basel II's Advance Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking
Dear Sirs:
Our first comment letter, submitted July 18, 2003 described in detail
our concerns about the proposed Basel II capital regime. Among other
things, inordinately complicated risk-based rules and the resulting
"black box" models will be virtually impossible to regulate and monitor
effectively, and ultimately will result in the nation's largest banks
sinking to the lowest levels of capital possible.
While we reaffirm our earlier comment letter (attached) and continue
to believe that the proposed Basel II regime is incompatible with
promoting safety and soundness in the banking system, we wish to
highlight the following points.
(1) A mandatory leverage requirement needs to be maintained.
We strongly agree with the position articulated in the ANPR that the
existing leverage ratio requirements, in addition to prompt corrective
action legislation and implementing regulations, should be maintained
even if Basel II is adopted, including a minimum 5% leverage ratio, to
be classified as "well-capitalized." However, it is essential that there
be legislation or binding provisions that would prohibit the leverage
ratios from being reduced or waived without some high level of review
and action, possibly an act of Congress or the unanimous approval of a
designated group, such as the Chairman of the FDIC, the Chairman of the
Federal Reserve Board and the Secretary of the Treasury. Experience
suggests that banks inevitably will opt for lower capital in order to
achieve higher returns on equity.
Many commentators have criticized the current capital regime,
claiming it is susceptible to arbitrage. We believe that Basel II's
risk-based regime will be even more easily gamed unless leverage ratios
are also in place. Minimum leverage ratios should be the foundation of
any capital regime, with risk-based rules existing to impose additional
capital requirements for riskier assets. Among other things, the
leverage ratio ensures that, regardless of the risk-based model used by
a bank or the manipulation we think will be endemic under Basel I);
there is at least a base level of protection in the event of a crisis,
rather than relying primarily on an insurance fund or a taxpayer
bailout.
Taking the residential mortgage industry as an example, Basel II
would cause risk-based capital levels for residential mortgages to fall
well below most leverage ratios. Such a result could be disastrous for
the mortgage industry in the absence of a leverage ratio. While we agree
that mortgage lending can operate at a high level of safety when
prudently managed and supervised, complexities abound and significant
downturns in the mortgage industry have occurred, and will continue to
occur, when potential regulatory lapses are combined with low capital
requirements. Ironically, 30 years ago, it was the failure to understand
these complexities that caused the United States to give unreasonably
favorable treatment to mortgages, and to allow marginal players to
operate with minimum levels of capital. And then, when a large part of
the thrift industry failed, the industry was roundly criticized for the
folly of not having had adequate capital to back up their activities.
Basel II's risk-based rules use the same wishful thinking that was used
30 years ago in the United States to justify unreasonably low capital
levels for mortgage activities without regard to the relevant
complexities.
In addition, the existing regulatory capital ratios should be
strengthened to prevent financial institutions from selling assets off
balance sheet and lowering their capital requirements even though the
probability of loss remains the same. It is nonsensical that a bank
should gain a capital advantage simply by shifting assets from one
pocket to another (see the attached for a simple illustration). This
type of manipulation would be an even greater problem after Basel II
where risk-based capital levels for some asset classes will fall well
below most leverage ratios, if leverage ratios are in place at all.
Accordingly, Basel II delegates should ensure that the capital levels
required for off balance sheet transactions, including securitizations,
are clearly specified and tested against a range of scenarios.
(2) Basel II's regime would have competitive implications and a
destabilizing effect.
Since capital is a key driver of return-on-equity, and a major focus
of investors, banks continually measure, manage and massage capital to
improve their market position. Basel II's internal ratings-based (IRB)
approaches will give banks a powerful tool to manipulate capital levels
and try to improve their profits relative to their competitors. The
result will be a race toward the lowest amount of capital reserves,
thereby distorting the purpose of a capital regime. The lower capital
levels that Basel II banks obtain will also threaten the viability of
those banks that remain subject to Basel I's higher capital thresholds,
because these Basel I banks will either become attractive takeover
targets or they will find it more difficult to compete for quality
assets, leaving them with riskier assets, lower credit ratings and
higher costs of funding.
(3) U.S. regulators should consider whether Basel II improves the
stability of the U.S. and international banking systems.
While we can appreciate that there is a significant amount of
political momentum moving Basel II toward adoption, especially in light
of the sunk costs already devoted to the new accord and the exhaustion
and/or frustration of the participants, we would urge U.S. regulators to
avoid being swept up by the push to get something done and to consider
instead whether Basel II will actually improve the stability of the U.S.
and international banking systems.
We continue to wonder why U.S. regulators would acquiesce to the
complex rules and selfdirected models being advocated by international
delegations with significantly less successfull banking systems. Our
national banking system has, over the past 30 years, been far more
stable than those abroad, in large part because our prior bank and
thrift crises produced a stronger regulatory framework and because we
benefited from capital rules that are simple enough to be understood by
management, applied consistently across all institutions, and monitored
effectively by regulators and other market participants. Again, have we
forgotten that complex rules and race-to-the-bottom incentives lead to
mischief and quickly spiral into full-blown crises, irrespective of the
sophistication of advanced models? The reality is that no one will know
how good the models are until the next crisis. Regardless of whether
international banking systems adopt Basel II, we suggest that the U.S.
should not subject the safety and soundness of its banking system to the
proposed new rules.
We are not opposed to well-reasoned changes to the current Basel II
capital accord. However, given the importance of capital rules and the
consequences if mistakes are made, we recommend evolutionary changes
rather than a revolutionary approach that would allow banks to determine
their own capital requirements. We continue to believe that the more
responsible approach would be to improve the supervisory process and
re-examine and adjust, as appropriate, Basel I's risk-weights and
categories.
Sincerely,
Herbert M. Sandler
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
World Savings Bank
Oakland, CA
Exhibit A
Selling Assets Off-Balance Sheet and Reducing
Capital Requirements
Scenario A: On-Balance Sheet
Scenario A shows the capital requirement for a bank that is holding
$1,000,000 of qualifying 1-4 family residential mortgage loans on its
balance sheet. We are assuming a minimum regulatory capital percentage
of 8%.
Asset value: $1,000,000
Risk-weighting: 50%
Regulatory %: 8%
Capital requirement: $40,000
Scenario B: Selling Assets Off-Balance Sheet while Retaining Small
Recourse Tranche
Scenario B assumes that the bank decides instead to sell 90% of those
same assets off balance sheet, while retaining only a 10% recourse
tranche on balance sheet.
90% Off Balance Sheet Tranche
|
10% Recourse Tranche
|
Asset value: $900,000 |
Asset value: $100,000 |
Risk-weighting: 0% |
Risk-weighting: 100% |
Regulatory %: 8% |
Regulatory %: 8% |
Capital requirement: $0 |
Capital requirement: $8,000 |
As shown above, the bank would reduce its capital requirement to
$8,000 by retaining only a 10% recourse tranche. One might argue that
this capital reduction is appropriate since the bank now only holds 10%
of the assets. The problem, however, is that the bank's 10% tranche may
in fact bear the same probable risk of credit loss as the bank would
bear under Scenario A, but with significantly less capital to support
the same level of risk. For example, the transaction can be structured
so that the bank's 10% tranche is a credit enhancement tranche in a
first-loss position, meaning the tranche bears the first 10% of credit
losses. So, even though the 10% tranche might end up absorbing most, if
not all, of the credit risk of the $1,000,000 in assets, and even though
the probability of the bank's credit loss remains the same between
Scenario A and B, the bank would be able to save $32,000 in capital.
And, of course, if the bank were to recycle the $900,000 in proceeds
from the off balance sheet sale into more loans, and restructure those
new loans into additional Scenario B transactions, it quickly becomes
apparent that very-low levels of capital will be available to support an
ever-expanding loan portfolio.
While this is obviously an over-simplified example, it illustrates
one of the many ways a bank could reduce its capital requirements even
though the same underlying assets are involved and the bank has an
equivalent risk exposure. And this example does not even touch upon the
bank's continued exposure under representations and warranties or other
informal guarantees that are often used in structured transactions.
WORLD SAVINGS
July 18, 2003
Federal Reserve Board
Attn: Vice-Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
Copy to regs.comments
a,federalreserve.gov
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Attn: Chairman Donald E. Powell
Copy to comments(ci),fdic.gov
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Attn: Comptroller John D.
Hawke, Jr.
Copy to regs.commentsa occ.treas.gov
Office of Thrift Supervision
Attn: Director James E. Gilleran
Copy to regs.comments(a
ots.treas.gov
RE: Comment on Basel II's Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR)
Dear Sirs:
During our 40 years in the residential mortgage lending business, we
have consistently advocated for reforms to improve the profitability and
viability of the banking industry, including calling for appropriate
capital requirements. We are alarmed by the prospect of a new Basel II
capital regime that would give banks worldwide, including the nation's
largest banks, the ability and incentive to sink to the lowest
denominator of capital they can get away with. Such a regime is
incompatible with promoting safety and soundness in the banking system.
We strongly urge U.S. regulators and legislators not to adopt Basel
II as it has been proposed. Instead, a more productive and responsible
approach would be to: (1) re-examine and adjust, as appropriate, Basel
I's risk-weights and categories and (2) improve the imperfections and
inconsistencies in the supervisory process. We strongly support the
position articulated in the ANPR that U.S. banking organizations should
continue to be subject to a leverage ratio requirement as described
under existing prompt corrective action legislation and implementing
regulations, regardless of the risk-based capital accord that is in
place. We propose that these leverage ratios should only be able to be
revised or waived by legislative action. We also urge U.S.
representatives on the Basel Committee to insist that the same minimum
leverage ratios be required world-wide so there is a capital safety net
for the international banking system.
Fundamental Requirements of any Capital Regulation
In our view, any capital regulation needs to be able to achieve the
following:
(1) Maximize the safety and soundness in the international banking
system by ensuring that sufficient capital is available as a cushion
against mistakes or unanticipated crises.
(2) Provide a fair and level playing field for all participants, so
that no banking institution is advantaged or disadvantaged because of
their size or geographic location.
(3) Try to synchronize capital levels with the relative risk of
different instruments and borrowers.
(4) Enable regulators and supervisory personnel to readily understand
the capital rules and ensure that adequate resources are available to
provide effective supervision.
(5) Be transparent enough to enable boards of directors, senior
management and business managers to direct and oversee the bank's
capital program.
(6) Create appropriate incentives for banks to maintain sufficient
capital levels (and disincentives to maintain inadequate levels).
(7) Provide a means for investors and other third parties to assess
the adequacy of a bank's capital ratios.
As discussed below, we believe a modernized Basel I can effectively
meet these standards, while Basel U will fall dangerously short by
placing undue emphasis on risk sensitivity (#3 above) to the detriment
of the other objectives.
A Modernized Basel I is a Better Solution
While Basel I may need some incremental improvements to continue to
meet the standards described above, its rules are simple enough to be
understood by all interested parties, it has substantially leveled the
playing field for banks that compete under different regulatory systems,
and it has a decade-long track record of not creating or exacerbating
any crises.
We are not persuaded that the commonly cited criticisms of Basel I
justify an overhaul of global capital rules that would disrupt settled
markets and enable banks, for the first time, to pick their own capital
requirements from a self-directed model. First, the one-size-fits-all
approach under Basel I works because it is simple enough to be
understood by boards of directors and management, applied consistently
across all institutions, and monitored effectively by regulators and
other market participants. Simplicity promotes stability. When capital
rules are understood by all interested parties, it becomes more
difficult for the mischievous to fool the ignorant (complexity, by
contrast, invites mischief, as evidenced in other complex areas such as
derivatives and special purpose entities). If additional risk categories
are needed to more closely align capital requirements with risk levels,
this can be done without resorting to Basel U's convoluted scheme. The
risk-weighting of these categories could also be modernized to better
match current knowledge about actual risk exposures. If the U.S. were to
adopt Basel II, we believe it should adopt only an approach akin to
Basel H's "standardized" approach that continues to assign fixed risk
weights to supervisory categories.
Second, if operational risk justifies a separate capital charge, and
we are not convinced it does, then Basel I could be revised to, give
regulators the authority to determine an appropriate capital
augmentation based on a bank's operating history and internal controls.
Third, if banks are retaining higher-risk assets after selling or
securitizing their lower-risk assets, and if this actually increases the potential for a crisis, then arguably Basel I's capital
thresholds should be increased for riskier assets.
Basel II Creates More Problems than Solutions
Basel II is another example of what happens when one puts into a
room, for several years, a very bright group of people charged with
developing a model to address every perceived imperfection in a highly
arcane subject area. The only way for the participants to reconcile
their theoretical ideas with the inevitable political concessions is to
produce an expansive model that requires hundreds of mind-numbing pages
to explain. Even the few experts who may believe they understand the
model will be unable to appreciate all the unintended consequences that
will result once market forces come into play, including how one or more
parties will try to game the new model and force more conservative
competitors to fall away or follow suit. We find it all oddly
reminiscent of the process that resulted in the debacle of California's
so-called energy deregulation, the consequences of which were mild
compared to the potentially destabilizing and devastating global
consequences under Basel U's privatization of bank regulation.
U.S. regulators should pause to reconsider whether the stability and
competitiveness of the U.S. banking system would really be improved by
joining the proposed international capital accord. As we see it, the
U.S. banking system has proven stronger and more resilient during recent
economic cycles than the international bank systems. This can largely be
attributed to the tough lessons learned during U.S. bank and thrift
crises, including the importance of core (leverage) capital, the need
for laws and regulations that encourage financial institutions to act in
a safe manner (and that discourage the opposite), and the critical role
played by active and informed regulators backed by the strength of
prompt corrective action. We believe this strong regulatory framework
has contributed to the better performance of U.S. financial institutions
relative to non-U.S. banks. Basel II is incompatible with these
regulatory principles and is largely the product of delegates from
international bank systems that are hardly worth emulating. These
delegates have frequently been motivated by their own domestic agendas
rather than a desire to create an accord that improves safety and
soundness world-wide. Therefore, we wonder why the U.S. should acquiesce
to weakening its bank regulatory standards to those used, and proposed,
by other less successful international regimes. Rather than sinking to
the lowest capital denominator, we should maintain our high national
standards and insist that international bank systems raise their
standards.
Proponents of Basel II like to rationalize the new accord's
complexity by stating that banking itself has become more complex, and
that more sophisticated risk-management models now exist. These
justifications overlook the real-world consequences of adopting an
inordinately complicated regime, including the resources needed for
implementation, the problems inherent in on-going maintenance, the
improbability of effective regulation and market oversight, and the
competitive pressures that will encourage banks to game the system.
Implementation Concerns
A bank that needs, or elects, to adopt Basel U would have to devote
substantial up-front resources to implement the accord. Estimates range
from $10 million for smaller banks to upwards of $200 million for large internationally active banks. The
number of personnel hours necessary to understand and implement the new
accord will be substantial. The vast majority of banks in the US will be
unable or unwilling to devote these resources, even if their
conservative operations and asset base might warrant a lower risk-based
capital charge. Basel U will result in wide variations in capital
standards used by banks, with inevitable competitive implications that
will be discussed below.
Those banks that can, and do, adopt Basel II, principally the largest
banks, will face tremendous challenges in managing the implementation of
such a complicated scheme. While the board of directors and senior
management are ultimately responsible for approving the Basel II
implementation plans, as well as understanding and managing the bank's
risks and financial results (which responsibility has been heightened
after Sarbanes-Oxley), it is unlikely that any director or executive
officer will have more than a surface understanding of Basel II or the
bank's own risk-based model. Rather, senior officers and directors will
hear truncated reports from time to time, and may even ask questions or
alter company strategy in response to the inputs and outputs generated
by the bank's black box, but they will not understand the black box
itself.
Nor will they want to, either because of the demands on their
schedules, the absence of the required technical skills, or the
insulation gained from deferring to, and keeping a safe distance from,
the experts. At the same time, management would prefer that the bank's
expenditures in implementing Basel II could be recouped by creating a
model that reduces the bank's capital requirements. While these
results-oriented pressures may not be as pronounced during the initial
phase-in period, they will exist and will expand with time, especially
in the face of competition. This is not to suggest malfeasance by
directors or management; it is merely an acknowledgement of the
realities that exist at most institutions. Banks will also tend to
underestimate risk inputs during the implementation phase, if for no
other reason than the empirical data of the last decade has been
uncharacteristically favorable as compared to prior economic cycles.
On-Going Maintenance Problems
Only a handful of employees at any bank will understand the most
complicated elements of the black box, and virtually no one will
understand it in totality. Those individual with the skill set to
understand the complexity will probably have an academic bent and will
not fully understand the dynamics of each of the bank's business units.
They could easily miss important, subtle distinctions or developments
that could have a dramatic impact on real-world risk at the bank.
Consultants hired to advise the bank about the black box likewise will
almost certainly lack experience managing or operating a bank. Even
assuming a small group of employees and consultants initially
understands a bank's model, personnel turnover will inevitably occur,
and their successors will not understand all the tradeoffs, assumptions
and other idiosyncracies that have been built into the model. Directors
and management will increasingly rely on the expertise and judgment
calls of the black box technicians, even though there will be a
continual loss of memory about the original details of the model. Later
generations of technicians will be less equipped to recognize the
problems in the model, or to acknowledge its obsolescence, and will be
incented to make incremental "improvements" to the black box to deliver
acceptable results.
The bank's model will also require regular data inputs from
individuals and departments throughout the bank, even though few if any
of them will understand the nuances of Basel II or the bank's model.
There will be immense pressures, both explicit and not-so-explicit, for
people in the field to report information that will yield a positive
result in the model. The flow of information into the black box will
inevitably be delayed, as people in the field will want to ensure the
accuracy of the data and may be prone to scrub any departmental data
that could conceivably have a negative impact on their particular
capital requirements. It could take years for subtle changes in a bank's
risk management systems to be accurately reflected in the bank's model,
and longer still for management to understand the implications.
Additionally, in major transactions, such as mergers or acquisitions, a
bank may not realistically understand all the integration and other
risks for many years, even though management will likely underestimate
the negative impact of those uncertainties in their risk-based model
until it becomes apparent at a much later time. Many recent crises,
including those on Wall Street, have resulted from individuals glossing
over, or obfuscating, near-term unfavorable results in the hope that
nobody would notice and results would ultimately improve. Basel II gives
banks a major incentive to do the same.
Improbability of Effective Regulation and Market Oversight
If the drafters of Basel II had devoted as much time addressing
imperfections and inconsistencies in the supervision of capital rules as
they did in creating formulas to correct every perceived imperfection
and inconsistency in capital calculations, the risks in the global
banking system would have been much more effectively mitigated.
Unfortunately, Basel II does nothing to improve supervisory standards
and is too optimistic about the ability of regulators to supervise the
new and highly complicated risk-based capital rules. The U.S. regulatory
agencies also are not "proposing to introduce specific requirements or
guidelines to implement" the supervisory pillar of Basel II. (ANPR, p.
19) We are concerned with the seeming lack of attention being given to
the very practical realities of trying to implement and then regulate
the new complex risk-based capital rules. Regardless of the intelligence
and good intentions of regulatory agencies charged with supervising a
bank's activities, we believe they will not be able to effectively
validate a bank's internal methods of risk management and guard against
systemic risks.
First, it will be difficult for all the global regulatory agencies to
find sufficient talent to fill their ranks, especially when they will be
competing for PhD-level expertise against banks with far deeper pockets.
Without sufficient staff to understand and keep current on each bank's
unique black box, and to conduct the increasingly complex bank
examinations, regulators will be forced to make resource allocation
decisions that diminish across-the-board oversight.
Second, even if adequate resources are available, unless a supervisor
actually participates in building and then managing a bank's black box,
it will be virtually impossible to understand all the model's
assumptions and anticipate its limitations. At the same time, a
supervisor who does participate in the model's development and
maintenance is more likely to be co-opted into believing the model works
or to be so buried in the details as to overlook emerging risks. Basel
II places inordinate faith in singularly skilled and self-assured
supervisors who can understand both a bank's intricate model and its
unique real-world risks, and can then identify and advocate technical fixes in the face of rebuttals and protests from the dozens
of skilled bank employees who spent years developing the models. Without
hundreds, if not thousands, of these skilled supervisors throughout the
world, the measurement and management of risks in the global banking
system will be determined by bank technocrats managing the black boxes.
Third, many of these skilled supervisors will have other job
opportunities, leaving later generations without the institutional
knowledge necessary to understand the complexities of each bank's black
box. It is difficult to imagine that later generations of supervisors
will ever be closer than three or four steps behind the bank personnel
that manage the model. As a consequence, it will be much more difficult
for supervisors to respond quickly when things start to go wrong. Prompt
corrective action, one of the most important safety nets for U.S. banks,
will almost always arrive too late.
The third pillar in Basel II, that of market discipline, is based on
the notion that the market, and/or the banks' own internal based
modeling, will ensure that banks maintain adequate capital levels. We
certainly support efforts to encourage the market to provide additional
oversight of the adequacy of bank capital, but Basel II does not provide
any meaningful protection in this regard. As proposed, we do not believe
the markets will be in any better position than the regulators to
understand all the implications of a bank's risk-based model. If
anything, they will be worse off in having to rely on the disparate
black boxes. Also, since markets do not always operate efficiently or
with perfect information, market disclosure and discipline is unlikely
to identify, and may tend to minimize, problems in the banks or the
banks' models. Rating agencies have been criticized for reacting too
slowly during crises and for being under pressure to deliver good
ratings in order to continue to win business. Accordingly, this form of
market discipline will function least when needed most. Additionally,
market oversight has not proven particularly effective at preventing
other crises, as market participants selectively overlook potential
problems during the build-up of speculative bubbles. Finally, any bank
that develops an internal risk management model will want to design it
to be market sensitive. If every bank does so, then all the models will
be sensitive to the same market information, causing institutions to all
react the same way during a crisis.
Competitive Pressures
Regulatory capital is a key driver of return-on-equity and,
therefore, profitability. At the same time, it is axiomatic that banks
cannot grow their asset base without correspondingly increasing their
capital levels (since capital thresholds are expressed as a percentage
of assets). While many conservative banks maintain capital levels in
excess of regulatory thresholds, other banks are more aggressive at
managing their capital levels in order to grow their asset base and/or
free up capital for other purposes.
Contrary to what some Basel II proponents have said (that levels of
required capital do not have a competitive impact), capital is a
fundamental financial metric that all companies actively measure, manage
and massage in order to improve their earnings and competitive position.
The pricing and structure of commercial loan transactions is very much
influenced by the impact on the counter-party's capital. Our bank has
entered into transactions with other financial institutions that charged
higher prices if the transaction required higher capital. Additionally, any commercial bank borrower is familiar with 364-day credit
facilities that roll over each year, a structure that was essentially
invented solely to allow commercial banks to avoid a higher capital
charge on loans. There are few, if any, transactions in which a bank
does not consider the impact on the bank's capital.
In the face of both international and domestic competition, a large
U.S. bank under Basel II would have every incentive to create and
maintain a risk-based model that allows it to reduce capital levels
below both its Basel I level and the capital levels of its competitors.
Failure to do so could not only jeopardize the bank's profitability
relative to its peers, but could also enable competitors to boost their
asset base and invest freed-up capital elsewhere. Even if only a few
large banks start out trying to game the system, others will find it
difficult to stay on the sidelines. The result could be a race by the
nation's largest banks toward the lowest amount of capital reserves.
Basel II banks will have an incentive to find or create the capital
model that requires the least amount of its capital, and will even be
encouraged to find ways to exchange their high-capital assets with other
banks whose own risk-based models (or supervisors) would accommodate a
lower risk-based capital charge for those same assets. As a consequence,
instead of ensuring that sufficient capital is available to address
risks, Basel II's do-it-yourself capital measurements will have
distorted economic incentives and will lead to greater risk-taking and
greater concentrations of risk.
The lower capital levels that large banks obtain under Basel II also
will inevitably threaten the viability of small to medium-sized banks.
These smaller banks perform a critical role in local economies,
especially as lenders of residential, small-business and other retail
products. Since most of these smaller banks will remain under Basel I,
they will have difficulty competing against bigger Basel II banks that
benefit from reduced risk-weighting for these same assets. Furthermore,
small Basel I banks would be likely takeover targets for Basel II banks
that believe they could deploy Basel I bank capital more "efficiently."
Basel I bank, that survive will find it more difficult to compete for
quality assets and could be left with riskier assets, lower credit
ratings and higher costs of liabilities.
The competition described in the preceding paragraph also could
destabilize the nation's housing market, one of the few bright spots
currently in the U.S. economy. Because of the lower capital requirements
under Basel II for residential mortgages, large banks may increase their
asset base allocated to mortgages, price mortgage products below what
Basel I banks can offer, and enhance their ability and desire to acquire
small lenders. They also may increasingly try to categorize consumer and
other credit as mortgage-related assets, and competition in pricing
could make the system vulnerable to a speculative bubble. With industry
consolidation, products also may become further standardized, in which
case consumers and businesses would have fewer choices. The
concentration of mortgage assets in just a few institutions would
further heighten potential system risk.
Recommendations and Conclusion
The drafters of Basel II purportedly set out to devise a more
efficient and effective risk-based capital model; instead, they have
crafted a risky model that inevitably will lead to capital deficiencies.
The objectives of any capital accord should be to promote stability by
requiring that sufficient capital be available, level the playing field, and
enable interested parties (boards of directors, management, regulators
and other market participants) to effectively monitor capital levels and
intervene if necessary. Basel II will not achieve this result, because
of its complexity, its high potential for manipulation, and the
impracticalities of effective regulation and market oversight.
A much better way to proceed would be to make specific incremental
changes to Basel I in areas where the existing accord currently falls
short and to improve the imperfections and inconsistencies in the
supervisory process. For the reasons discussed above, we believe that
capital requirements could be more closely aligned with actual risk,
without resorting to Basel U's bank-driven models, simply by increasing
somewhat the number of risk categories and recalculating specific
risk-weightings using modem risk management techniques. This modernized
Basel I approach would avoid the unnecessary complexity and competitive
implications of the Basel I/Basel II bifurcated regulatory framework
being proposed.
At the very least, any capital accord should co-exist along with a
minimum leverage requirement that applies to both domestic and
international banks. We agree with the position articulated in the ANPR
that the existing leverage ratio requirements under prompt corrective
action legislation and implementing regulations should be maintained,
including a minimum 5% leverage ratio to be classified as
"well-capitalized." Moreover, there should be legislation or binding
provisions that would prohibit the leverage ratios from being reduced or
waived without legislative action. Among other things, a minimum
leverage ratio ensures that, regardless of the risk-based capital model
used by a bank, there is a base level of capital available in the event
of a crisis. It would serve as a counter-balance to unexpected risks
that might arise or the manipulation created by either Basel I or Basel
II. The U.S. regulatory agencies properly have decided not to "place
sole reliance on the results of economic capital calculations for
purposes of computing minimum regulatory capital requirements." (ANPR,
p. 10) Because of the added safety and soundness protection that a
leverage ratio provides, we would urge American representatives in Basel
II to insist that a leverage ratio be applied to all banks world-wide
under the accord.
As. a matter of sound public policy, we believe it is infinitely
wiser for a capital accord to err on the side of overcapitalized banks,
rather than giving banks worldwide the ability and incentive to reduce
capital levels as low as possible. Unless the U.S. dispenses with Basel
II's fanciful scheme, the seeds of the next bank crisis will have been
sown, watered, and be well along in destructive growth.
Sincerely,
Herbert M. Sandler
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
World Savings Bank
Oakland, CA
Appendix I
About World Savings
• World Savings is the principal subsidiary of Golden West Financial
Corporation, a NYSE-listed company (ticker: GDW)
• As of March 31, 2003, World Savings held assets of over $70
billion, most of which consist of adjustable rate loans secured by
residential mortgages. World Savings currently operates 476 savings and
lending offices in 38 states.
• The company's compound average annual earnings per share growth for
the past 35 years has been 20%
• World Savings' "double A" credit rating is the highest ever earned
by an independent savings institution and a full two notches above any
other independent thrift.
• World Savings' high capital level falls in the "well-capitalized"
category with the Office of Thrift Supervision, the top tier available.
A well-capitalized bank must have a Tier 1 core or leverage ratio of 5%
or greater (ours is above 7%), a Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio of 6%
or greater (ours is above 13%), and a total risk-based capital ratio of
10% or greater (ours is above 14%).
As of July 18, 2003
|