Chart 2: The 2000 Book of Subprime Mortgages Has Fared Poorly In Comparison With Prior Vintages
Data Source: Loan Performance (Mortgage Information Corporation)
Vertical Axis: Seriously Delinquent Subprime Loans as a Percentage of the Dollar Volume of Subprime Loans Outstanding (scale = 0 to 14%)
Horizontal Axis: This is a time series showing the number of months since origination of the loan pools (scale = 6 to 57 months since origination, in 3-month increments)
This line graph compares the percentage of seriously delinquent subprime mortgages originated during 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 from 6 to 57 months after origination. For all vintage years, the delinquency ratio trended slightly upward during the first year after origination, but was less than 2 percent after the first 12 months of seasoning. Performance following the first year of seasoning differs substantially among the various vintage years. For instance, following the first 21 months of seasoning, subprime mortgages underwritten during 2000 had a delinquency ratio of 6.6 percent, whereas similarly-seasoned subprime mortgages underwritten in 1997, 1998, and 1999 had delinquency ratios of only 5.4, 4.5, and 4.5 percent, respectively. As of the third quarter of 2001, the 1997 vintage had reached a peak delinquency rate of 12.5 percent after 57 months of seasoning, the 1998 vintage an 11.3 percent delinquency rate after 45 months, and the 1999 vintage a 9.0 percent delinquency rate after 33 months.