FDIC 2006 Economic Outlook Roundtable
Scenarios for the Next U.S. Recession
Richard A. Brown
Chief Economist and Associate Director, Risk Analysis Branch, FDIC
Richard A. Brown is Chief Economist and Associate Director for Risk Analysis in the Division of Insurance and Research at the FDIC in Washington, D.C. His branch is responsible for identifying and analyzing emerging risks to the FDIC deposit insurance funds. This role includes analysis of current trends in the economy, the financial markets, and insured depository institutions, with a focus on bank risk management.
From 1996 to 2002, Dr. Brown was Chief of the Economic and Market Trends Section in the FDIC's former Division of Insurance. Prior to 1996, he served as a financial economist specializing in resolutions and asset disposition policy in the FDIC's former Division of Research and Statistics. He has also held research positions at the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB).
Dr. Brown completed a Ph.D. in economics at The George Washington University in 1994 and a B.A. in economics at the University of Cincinnati in 1984.
Kathleen M. Camilli
Chief Economist and Director, Camilli Economics
Kathleen Camilli is one of the nation's top economic forecasters and independent economists. Her firm, Camilli Economics, provides clients, including investment organizations, corporations, high-net-worth individuals and family offices, with "real world" economic guidance for smart business and financial decisions. Building on her more than two decades of accomplished private and public-sector experience, Ms. Camilli provides "on-target" analysis on the workings of the U.S. economy and financial markets. Armed with a solid foundation of global macro/microeconomic perspectives, she offers unique insight into complex issues and translates those into understandable, actionable ideas.
Known for her consistently accurate forecasting, Kathleen Camilli is one of the leading economists in the country today and has received top ranking from objective performance raters, including The Wall Street Journal, who named her one of the top five economic forecasters two years in a row; Business Week, who named her the number one performing forecaster, and Institutional Investor.
Before founding Camilli Economics in 2004, Ms. Camilli was the U.S. Economist at Credit Suisse Asset Management (CSAM) in New York, where she provided insight on the U.S. economy to the firm's investment process, overseeing $312 billion in fixed- income and equity assets globally. Before joining CSAM, she was Tucker Anthony's Director of Economic Research for six years. During her career, she has worked as a money market economist at Drexel Burnham Lambert and as a Fed-watcher at Chase Manhattan Bank. She began her career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she trained as a practicing economist and was responsible for forecasting reserves for the Open Market Desk.
Kathleen Camilli received B.A. degrees in both Economics and French from Douglas College, Rutgers University. She studied at Universite de Laval, Quebec, Canada and Universite de Paris III, VII, France. She earned an M.B.A. in Finance and an M.A. in French Studies from New York University.
A frequent commentator, author and speaker, Kathleen Camilli appears regularly on CNN, CNBC, The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, Nightly Business Report and Bloomberg Business News. She has been quoted in the financial press, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and USA Today.
Ms. Camilli is on the Board of Directors of MassBank Corp., the Money Marketeers of New York University, and the National Association of Business Economists. She is a contributor to Blue Chip Financial Forecasts.
Arthur J. McMahon
Director, Economic Outlook/Bank Condition, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Arthur J. McMahon is Director of the Economic Outlook and Bank Condition Division of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). He joined the OCC in December 1993 as an economist in the International Banking and Finance Division and was appointed to his current position in March 2004. The Economic Outlook and Bank Condition Division is responsible for analysis of the condition of the national banking system and for assessing the impact of economic and financial market developments on banks. Prior to joining the OCC, Mr. McMahon worked in the International Banking and Portfolio Investment Office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he was one of the lead negotiators on financial services during the Uruguay Round of Bilateral Negotiations. From January 1988 through June 1990, Mr. McMahon was a Treasury representative in the Office of the Financial Attache in Tokyo. Prior to that time, he worked in the Foreign Exchange Operations Office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Mr. McMahon received an M.A. in economics and has completed all course work and comprehensive exams for a Ph.D. in economics at Fordham University, New York.
Business Columnist, Washington Post
Steven Pearlstein writes a column twice weekly for the Washington Post on business and the economy, with ranging widely among local, national and international topics. He is a former deputy business editor of the Post and senior editor at Inc. magazine. He was founding publisher and editor of the Boston Observer, a monthly journal of liberal opinion. He got his start in journalism reporting for two New Hampshire newspapers, the Concord Monitor and the Foster's Daily Democrat. Pearlstein has also worked as a television news reporter in Boston and a congressional aide to a U.S. senator and member of Congress. He was raised in Brookline, Massachusetts, and graduated from Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut. He lives in Washington with his wife, Wendy Gray, and teenage children Laura and Eli.
Executive Director, CIBC World Markets
Meredith Whitney is currently the Senior Financial Institutions Analyst for CIBC World Markets, a subsidiary of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. She and her team focus upon large and mid-sized banks as well as a cross section of independent commercial and consumer finance companies. An expert in her field, Ms. Whitney is frequently quoted in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Forbes, and Fortune, among other publications. Ms. Whitney also appears weekly as a Business Contributor on Fox News.
Prior to CIBC, Ms. Whitney spent four years leading Financial Institutions research at Wachovia Securities (formerly First Union Securities). Prior to Wachovia, Ms. Whitney spent six years covering Specialty Finance at CIBC World Markets (formerly Oppenheimer).
In 2002, Ms. Whitney was named the number two stock picker in her category by The Wall Street Journal's Best on the Street Survey. In 2003, Ms. Whitney was invited to visit U.S. troops in the Middle East as part of the 2003 Christmas USO Tour.
Ms. Whitney graduated with honors from Brown University.