Chart 8 Spread between 3-month T-bill and 10-year note.

Quarter Year Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change - Annual Rate; seasonally adjusted annual rate in chain-weighted 2000 dollars) Spread between 3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Note Recession Quarter? (yes/no)
1Q 1979 0.78% N/A no
2Q 1979 0.38% N/A no
3Q 1979 2.91% N/A no
4Q 1979 1.18% N/A no
1Q 1980 1.28% N/A yes
2Q 1980 -7.83% N/A yes
3Q 1980 -0.66% N/A yes
4Q 1980 7.63% N/A no
1Q 1981 8.35% N/A no
2Q 1981 -3.08% N/A no
3Q 1981 4.93% N/A yes
4Q 1981 -4.89% 1.79 yes
1Q 1982 -6.40% 0.79 yes
2Q 1982 2.17% 0.89 yes
3Q 1982 -1.51% 3.43 yes
4Q 1982 0.36% 2.49 yes
1Q 1983 5.02% 2.17 no
2Q 1983 9.33% 1.83 no
3Q 1983 8.14% 2.11 no
4Q 1983 8.44% 2.53 no
1Q 1984 8.05% 2.41 no
2Q 1984 7.06% 3.02 no
3Q 1984 3.95% 2.12 no
4Q 1984 3.33% 2.62 no
1Q 1985 3.74% 3.11 no
2Q 1985 3.46% 3.10 no
3Q 1985 6.40% 3.00 no
4Q 1985 3.11% 2.36 no
1Q 1986 3.88% 1.44 no
2Q 1986 1.59% 1.28 no
3Q 1986 3.89% 1.63 no
4Q 1986 2.03% 1.76 no
1Q 1987 2.66% 1.49 no
2Q 1987 4.47% 2.50 no
3Q 1987 3.68% 2.63 no
4Q 1987 7.17% 3.06 no
1Q 1988 1.97% 2.51 no
2Q 1988 5.18% 2.51 no
3Q 1988 2.15% 1.86 no
4Q 1988 5.38% 0.96 no
1Q 1989 4.12% 0.36 no
2Q 1989 2.65% 0.06 no
3Q 1989 2.88% 0.00 no
4Q 1989 1.02% 0.00 no
1Q 1990 4.70% 0.40 no
2Q 1990 1.03% 0.66 no
3Q 1990 0.03% 0.98 yes
4Q 1990 -2.99% 1.18 yes
1Q 1991 -2.02% 1.81 yes
2Q 1991 2.62% 2.39 no
3Q 1991 1.94% 2.40 no
4Q 1991 1.89% 2.68 no
1Q 1992 4.21% 3.30 no
2Q 1992 3.91% 3.61 no
3Q 1992 3.98% 3.47 no
4Q 1992 4.48% 3.60 no
1Q 1993 0.48% 3.26 no
2Q 1993 2.04% 2.96 no
3Q 1993 2.07% 2.55 no
4Q 1993 5.49% 2.47 no
1Q 1994 4.13% 2.75 no
2Q 1994 5.32% 2.98 no
3Q 1994 2.26% 2.73 no
4Q 1994 4.77% 2.40 no
1Q 1995 1.12% 1.57 no
2Q 1995 0.72% 0.84 no
3Q 1995 3.30% 0.79 no
4Q 1995 2.96% 0.48 no
1Q 1996 2.85% 0.84 no
2Q 1996 6.72% 1.56 no
3Q 1996 3.40% 1.54 no
4Q 1996 4.76% 1.23 no
1Q 1997 3.13% 1.37 no
2Q 1997 6.22% 1.51 no
3Q 1997 5.07% 1.06 no
4Q 1997 2.98% 0.68 no
1Q 1998 4.50% 0.40 no
2Q 1998 2.67% 0.48 no
3Q 1998 4.69% 0.25 no
4Q 1998 6.22% 0.30 no
1Q 1999 3.44% 0.46 no
2Q 1999 3.35% 0.95 no
3Q 1999 4.75% 1.09 no
4Q 1999 7.30% 0.94 no
1Q 2000 1.02% 0.78 no
2Q 2000 6.43% 0.29 no
3Q 2000 -0.46% -0.31 no
4Q 2000 2.09% -0.63 no
1Q 2001 -0.49% 0.10 yes
2Q 2001 1.23% 1.52 yes
3Q 2001 -1.40% 1.74 yes
4Q 2001 1.59% 2.83 yes
1Q 2002 2.74% 3.32 no
2Q 2002 2.19% 3.35 no
3Q 2002 2.38% 2.59 no
4Q 2002 0.20% 2.65 no
1Q 2003 1.71% 2.74 no
2Q 2003 3.67% 2.56 no
3Q 2003 7.25% 3.28 no
4Q 2003 3.57% 3.35 no
1Q 2004 4.25% 3.09 no
2Q 2004 3.50% 3.50 no
3Q 2004 3.97% 2.79 no
4Q 2004 3.30% 2.13 no
1Q 2005 3.80% 1.71 no
2Q 2005 3.31% 1.23 no
3Q 2005 4.14% 0.78 no
4Q 2005 1.12% 0.58 no

Source: Haver Analytics..