Chart 8
Spread between 3-month T-bill and 10-year note.
Quarter Year |
Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change - Annual Rate; seasonally adjusted annual rate in chain-weighted 2000 dollars) |
Spread between 3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Note |
Recession Quarter? (yes/no) |
1Q 1979 |
0.78% |
N/A |
no |
2Q 1979 |
0.38% |
N/A |
no |
3Q 1979 |
2.91% |
N/A |
no |
4Q 1979 |
1.18% |
N/A |
no |
1Q 1980 |
1.28% |
N/A |
yes |
2Q 1980 |
-7.83% |
N/A |
yes |
3Q 1980 |
-0.66% |
N/A |
yes |
4Q 1980 |
7.63% |
N/A |
no |
1Q 1981 |
8.35% |
N/A |
no |
2Q 1981 |
-3.08% |
N/A |
no |
3Q 1981 |
4.93% |
N/A |
yes |
4Q 1981 |
-4.89% |
1.79 |
yes |
1Q 1982 |
-6.40% |
0.79 |
yes |
2Q 1982 |
2.17% |
0.89 |
yes |
3Q 1982 |
-1.51% |
3.43 |
yes |
4Q 1982 |
0.36% |
2.49 |
yes |
1Q 1983 |
5.02% |
2.17 |
no |
2Q 1983 |
9.33% |
1.83 |
no |
3Q 1983 |
8.14% |
2.11 |
no |
4Q 1983 |
8.44% |
2.53 |
no |
1Q 1984 |
8.05% |
2.41 |
no |
2Q 1984 |
7.06% |
3.02 |
no |
3Q 1984 |
3.95% |
2.12 |
no |
4Q 1984 |
3.33% |
2.62 |
no |
1Q 1985 |
3.74% |
3.11 |
no |
2Q 1985 |
3.46% |
3.10 |
no |
3Q 1985 |
6.40% |
3.00 |
no |
4Q 1985 |
3.11% |
2.36 |
no |
1Q 1986 |
3.88% |
1.44 |
no |
2Q 1986 |
1.59% |
1.28 |
no |
3Q 1986 |
3.89% |
1.63 |
no |
4Q 1986 |
2.03% |
1.76 |
no |
1Q 1987 |
2.66% |
1.49 |
no |
2Q 1987 |
4.47% |
2.50 |
no |
3Q 1987 |
3.68% |
2.63 |
no |
4Q 1987 |
7.17% |
3.06 |
no |
1Q 1988 |
1.97% |
2.51 |
no |
2Q 1988 |
5.18% |
2.51 |
no |
3Q 1988 |
2.15% |
1.86 |
no |
4Q 1988 |
5.38% |
0.96 |
no |
1Q 1989 |
4.12% |
0.36 |
no |
2Q 1989 |
2.65% |
0.06 |
no |
3Q 1989 |
2.88% |
0.00 |
no |
4Q 1989 |
1.02% |
0.00 |
no |
1Q 1990 |
4.70% |
0.40 |
no |
2Q 1990 |
1.03% |
0.66 |
no |
3Q 1990 |
0.03% |
0.98 |
yes |
4Q 1990 |
-2.99% |
1.18 |
yes |
1Q 1991 |
-2.02% |
1.81 |
yes |
2Q 1991 |
2.62% |
2.39 |
no |
3Q 1991 |
1.94% |
2.40 |
no |
4Q 1991 |
1.89% |
2.68 |
no |
1Q 1992 |
4.21% |
3.30 |
no |
2Q 1992 |
3.91% |
3.61 |
no |
3Q 1992 |
3.98% |
3.47 |
no |
4Q 1992 |
4.48% |
3.60 |
no |
1Q 1993 |
0.48% |
3.26 |
no |
2Q 1993 |
2.04% |
2.96 |
no |
3Q 1993 |
2.07% |
2.55 |
no |
4Q 1993 |
5.49% |
2.47 |
no |
1Q 1994 |
4.13% |
2.75 |
no |
2Q 1994 |
5.32% |
2.98 |
no |
3Q 1994 |
2.26% |
2.73 |
no |
4Q 1994 |
4.77% |
2.40 |
no |
1Q 1995 |
1.12% |
1.57 |
no |
2Q 1995 |
0.72% |
0.84 |
no |
3Q 1995 |
3.30% |
0.79 |
no |
4Q 1995 |
2.96% |
0.48 |
no |
1Q 1996 |
2.85% |
0.84 |
no |
2Q 1996 |
6.72% |
1.56 |
no |
3Q 1996 |
3.40% |
1.54 |
no |
4Q 1996 |
4.76% |
1.23 |
no |
1Q 1997 |
3.13% |
1.37 |
no |
2Q 1997 |
6.22% |
1.51 |
no |
3Q 1997 |
5.07% |
1.06 |
no |
4Q 1997 |
2.98% |
0.68 |
no |
1Q 1998 |
4.50% |
0.40 |
no |
2Q 1998 |
2.67% |
0.48 |
no |
3Q 1998 |
4.69% |
0.25 |
no |
4Q 1998 |
6.22% |
0.30 |
no |
1Q 1999 |
3.44% |
0.46 |
no |
2Q 1999 |
3.35% |
0.95 |
no |
3Q 1999 |
4.75% |
1.09 |
no |
4Q 1999 |
7.30% |
0.94 |
no |
1Q 2000 |
1.02% |
0.78 |
no |
2Q 2000 |
6.43% |
0.29 |
no |
3Q 2000 |
-0.46% |
-0.31 |
no |
4Q 2000 |
2.09% |
-0.63 |
no |
1Q 2001 |
-0.49% |
0.10 |
yes |
2Q 2001 |
1.23% |
1.52 |
yes |
3Q 2001 |
-1.40% |
1.74 |
yes |
4Q 2001 |
1.59% |
2.83 |
yes |
1Q 2002 |
2.74% |
3.32 |
no |
2Q 2002 |
2.19% |
3.35 |
no |
3Q 2002 |
2.38% |
2.59 |
no |
4Q 2002 |
0.20% |
2.65 |
no |
1Q 2003 |
1.71% |
2.74 |
no |
2Q 2003 |
3.67% |
2.56 |
no |
3Q 2003 |
7.25% |
3.28 |
no |
4Q 2003 |
3.57% |
3.35 |
no |
1Q 2004 |
4.25% |
3.09 |
no |
2Q 2004 |
3.50% |
3.50 |
no |
3Q 2004 |
3.97% |
2.79 |
no |
4Q 2004 |
3.30% |
2.13 |
no |
1Q 2005 |
3.80% |
1.71 |
no |
2Q 2005 |
3.31% |
1.23 |
no |
3Q 2005 |
4.14% |
0.78 |
no |
4Q 2005 |
1.12% |
0.58 |
no |
Source: Haver Analytics..
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