Chart 36 We believe there will be a segmented consumer recession over the next 24 months that will impact 10% of the U.S. consumers.

Year Homeownership Rate (percent)
1960 62.1
1961 62.4
1962 63.0
1963 63.1
1964 63.1
1965 63.3
1966 63.4
1967 63.6
1968 63.9
1969 64.3
1970 64.2
1971 64.2
1972 64.4
1973 64.5
1974 64.6
1975 64.6
1976 64.7
1977 64.8
1978 65.0
1979 65.6
1980 65.6
1981 65.4
1982 64.8
1983 64.6
1984 64.5
1985 63.9
1986 63.8
1987 64.0
1988 63.8
1989 63.9
1990 63.9
1991 64.1
1992 64.1
1993 64.0
1994 64.0
1995 64.7
1996 65.4
1997 65.7
1998 66.3
1999 66.8
2000 67.4
2001 67.8
2002 67.9
2003 68.3
2004 69.0
1Q 2005 69.1
2Q 2005 68.6
3Q 2005 68.8

Notes: 26 percent of the U.S. population lives at, near, or below poverty level. Since 26 percent of the U.S. population lives at, near, or below poverty level with no access to credit, this implies that 74% of the population qualify for credit. 74 percent of the U.S. population qualify for credit. 69.1 percent was the peak homeownership rate in first quarter 2005. 64 percent was the average homeownership rate from 1985 to 1994. From 1985 to 1994, the homeownership rate hovered at 64 percent. Homeownership rate reached a peak of 69.1 percent in first quarter 2005. The 5.1 percent differential represents those who would not have qualified for mortgages prior to 1994 and are largely characterized as subprime. Greenspan believes that roughly 5 percent of the population is at high risk with over 90 percent loan-to-values on their mortgages. This 10 percent of the population has only recently accessed unparalleled levels of credit and could experience a recession.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, and CIBC World Markets.