The exhibit illustrates how several models may be integrated to enable the FDIC to manage its risks. The risk model concept includes four major components:
These four components would be run through an analysis engine - potentially by simulation - to generate two outputs:
- A credit risk model, in which bank failure probabilities, loss rates, and a correlation structure are fed through a simulation engine to calculate a distribution of possible credit losses.
- Investment information, including maturities, coupons, and whether available for sale
- Some formula or model for estimating insured deposit growth, and
- Estimates of premium income based on different policy assumptions.
- Probability of losses exceeding a critical threshold, and
- Probability of the insurance fund falling below a target reserve ratio.