This article explores the notion that publicly available stock price, return, and other market-related variables can provide timely information about bank and thrift financial condition; the article also determines whether such information can be used to improve the predictive accuracy of traditional off-site monitoring models for the purpose of anticipating changes in the CAMEL ratings assigned by regulators.
The FDIC monitors all insured institutions and attempts to identify previously sound institutions that have developed significant weaknesses. In late 1998, the FDIC adopted a statistical model, SCOR, as its basic method of monitoring insured institutions between examinations. This article describes how the SCOR model was designed to maximize accuracy and to give analysts insight into the potential weaknesses of financial institutions.
This regular feature of the FDIC Banking Review contains information on regulatory agency actions, state legislation and regulation, and articles and studies pertinent to banking and deposit insurance issues.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Articles may be reprinted or abstracted if the FDIC Banking Review and author(s) are credited. Please provide the FDIC's Division of Insurance and Research with a copy of any publications containing reprinted material.
Single-copy subscriptions are available to the public free of charge. Requests for subscriptions, back issues or address changes should be mailed to: FDIC Banking Review, Public Information Center, 801 17th Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20434.
Chairman Donald E. Powell
Director, Division of Insurance and Research Arthur J. Murton