Chart 7
Spread between 3-month T-bill and 10-year note.
Month |
Year |
Spread between 3-Month T-bill and 10-Year Note |
Recession Month? (yes/no) |
Jan |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Feb |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Mar |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Apr |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
May |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Jun |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Jul |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Aug |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Sep |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Oct |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Nov |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Dec |
1979 |
N/A |
no |
Jan |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Feb |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Mar |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Apr |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
May |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Jun |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Jul |
1980 |
N/A |
yes |
Aug |
1980 |
N/A |
no |
Sep |
1980 |
N/A |
no |
Oct |
1980 |
N/A |
no |
Nov |
1980 |
N/A |
no |
Dec |
1980 |
N/A |
no |
Jan |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
Feb |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
Mar |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
Apr |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
May |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
Jun |
1981 |
N/A |
no |
Jul |
1981 |
N/A |
yes |
Aug |
1981 |
N/A |
yes |
Sep |
1981 |
-0.29 |
yes |
Oct |
1981 |
0.92 |
yes |
Nov |
1981 |
2.04 |
yes |
Dec |
1981 |
2.40 |
yes |
Jan |
1982 |
1.67 |
yes |
Feb |
1982 |
0.15 |
yes |
Mar |
1982 |
0.55 |
yes |
Apr |
1982 |
0.53 |
yes |
May |
1982 |
0.91 |
yes |
Jun |
1982 |
1.22 |
yes |
Jul |
1982 |
2.09 |
yes |
Aug |
1982 |
4.05 |
yes |
Sep |
1982 |
4.15 |
yes |
Oct |
1982 |
2.94 |
yes |
Nov |
1982 |
2.20 |
yes |
Dec |
1982 |
2.34 |
no |
Jan |
1983 |
2.34 |
no |
Feb |
1983 |
2.33 |
no |
Mar |
1983 |
1.85 |
no |
Apr |
1983 |
1.89 |
no |
May |
1983 |
1.88 |
no |
Jun |
1983 |
1.71 |
no |
Jul |
1983 |
1.93 |
no |
Aug |
1983 |
2.11 |
no |
Sep |
1983 |
2.29 |
no |
Oct |
1983 |
2.55 |
no |
Nov |
1983 |
2.58 |
no |
Dec |
1983 |
2.47 |
no |
Jan |
1984 |
2.41 |
no |
Feb |
1984 |
2.38 |
no |
Mar |
1984 |
2.43 |
no |
Apr |
1984 |
2.56 |
no |
May |
1984 |
3.19 |
no |
Jun |
1984 |
3.30 |
no |
Jul |
1984 |
2.83 |
no |
Aug |
1984 |
1.82 |
no |
Sep |
1984 |
1.72 |
no |
Oct |
1984 |
2.04 |
no |
Nov |
1984 |
2.65 |
no |
Dec |
1984 |
3.16 |
no |
Jan |
1985 |
3.36 |
no |
Feb |
1985 |
2.95 |
no |
Mar |
1985 |
3.03 |
no |
Apr |
1985 |
3.21 |
no |
May |
1985 |
3.12 |
no |
Jun |
1985 |
2.98 |
no |
Jul |
1985 |
2.99 |
no |
Aug |
1985 |
2.96 |
no |
Sep |
1985 |
3.04 |
no |
Oct |
1985 |
2.84 |
no |
Nov |
1985 |
2.30 |
no |
Dec |
1985 |
1.93 |
no |
Jan |
1986 |
1.89 |
no |
Feb |
1986 |
1.41 |
no |
Mar |
1986 |
1.02 |
no |
Apr |
1986 |
1.06 |
no |
May |
1986 |
1.38 |
no |
Jun |
1986 |
1.40 |
no |
Jul |
1986 |
1.30 |
no |
Aug |
1986 |
1.48 |
no |
Sep |
1986 |
2.10 |
no |
Oct |
1986 |
2.11 |
no |
Nov |
1986 |
1.75 |
no |
Dec |
1986 |
1.43 |
no |
Jan |
1987 |
1.50 |
no |
Feb |
1987 |
1.50 |
no |
Mar |
1987 |
1.48 |
no |
Apr |
1987 |
2.20 |
no |
May |
1987 |
2.76 |
no |
Jun |
1987 |
2.55 |
no |
Jul |
1987 |
2.57 |
no |
Aug |
1987 |
2.53 |
no |
Sep |
1987 |
2.80 |
no |
Oct |
1987 |
3.17 |
no |
Nov |
1987 |
2.97 |
no |
Dec |
1987 |
3.03 |
no |
Jan |
1988 |
2.67 |
no |
Feb |
1988 |
2.37 |
no |
Mar |
1988 |
2.50 |
no |
Apr |
1988 |
2.64 |
no |
May |
1988 |
2.64 |
no |
Jun |
1988 |
2.26 |
no |
Jul |
1988 |
2.11 |
no |
Aug |
1988 |
1.96 |
no |
Sep |
1988 |
1.50 |
no |
Oct |
1988 |
1.20 |
no |
Nov |
1988 |
0.93 |
no |
Dec |
1988 |
0.76 |
no |
Jan |
1989 |
0.54 |
no |
Feb |
1989 |
0.33 |
no |
Mar |
1989 |
0.22 |
no |
Apr |
1989 |
0.22 |
no |
May |
1989 |
0.12 |
no |
Jun |
1989 |
-0.15 |
no |
Jul |
1989 |
-0.13 |
no |
Aug |
1989 |
-0.06 |
no |
Sep |
1989 |
0.18 |
no |
Oct |
1989 |
0.11 |
no |
Nov |
1989 |
-0.07 |
no |
Dec |
1989 |
-0.04 |
no |
Jan |
1990 |
0.31 |
no |
Feb |
1990 |
0.47 |
no |
Mar |
1990 |
0.42 |
no |
Apr |
1990 |
0.75 |
no |
May |
1990 |
0.75 |
no |
Jun |
1990 |
0.49 |
no |
Jul |
1990 |
0.60 |
yes |
Aug |
1990 |
1.06 |
yes |
Sep |
1990 |
1.29 |
yes |
Oct |
1990 |
1.32 |
yes |
Nov |
1990 |
1.10 |
yes |
Dec |
1990 |
1.13 |
yes |
Jan |
1991 |
1.68 |
yes |
Feb |
1991 |
1.73 |
yes |
Mar |
1991 |
2.02 |
yes |
Apr |
1991 |
2.21 |
no |
May |
1991 |
2.44 |
no |
Jun |
1991 |
2.53 |
no |
Jul |
1991 |
2.52 |
no |
Aug |
1991 |
2.40 |
no |
Sep |
1991 |
2.28 |
no |
Oct |
1991 |
2.39 |
no |
Nov |
1991 |
2.73 |
no |
Dec |
1991 |
2.91 |
no |
Jan |
1992 |
3.12 |
no |
Feb |
1992 |
3.39 |
no |
Mar |
1992 |
3.40 |
no |
Apr |
1992 |
3.64 |
no |
May |
1992 |
3.67 |
no |
Jun |
1992 |
3.51 |
no |
Jul |
1992 |
3.56 |
no |
Aug |
1992 |
3.39 |
no |
Sep |
1992 |
3.45 |
no |
Oct |
1992 |
3.66 |
no |
Nov |
1992 |
3.66 |
no |
Dec |
1992 |
3.48 |
no |
Jan |
1993 |
3.53 |
no |
Feb |
1993 |
3.27 |
no |
Mar |
1993 |
2.97 |
no |
Apr |
1993 |
3.04 |
no |
May |
1993 |
3.01 |
no |
Jun |
1993 |
2.82 |
no |
Jul |
1993 |
2.70 |
no |
Aug |
1993 |
2.59 |
no |
Sep |
1993 |
2.35 |
no |
Oct |
1993 |
2.24 |
no |
Nov |
1993 |
2.54 |
no |
Dec |
1993 |
2.64 |
no |
Jan |
1994 |
2.71 |
no |
Feb |
1994 |
2.64 |
no |
Mar |
1994 |
2.89 |
no |
Apr |
1994 |
3.19 |
no |
May |
1994 |
2.91 |
no |
Jun |
1994 |
2.85 |
no |
Jul |
1994 |
2.84 |
no |
Aug |
1994 |
2.63 |
no |
Sep |
1994 |
2.71 |
no |
Oct |
1994 |
2.64 |
no |
Nov |
1994 |
2.51 |
no |
Dec |
1994 |
2.05 |
no |
Jan |
1995 |
1.88 |
no |
Feb |
1995 |
1.53 |
no |
Mar |
1995 |
1.29 |
no |
Apr |
1995 |
1.22 |
no |
May |
1995 |
0.78 |
no |
Jun |
1995 |
0.53 |
no |
Jul |
1995 |
0.69 |
no |
Aug |
1995 |
0.92 |
no |
Sep |
1995 |
0.77 |
no |
Oct |
1995 |
0.60 |
no |
Nov |
1995 |
0.41 |
no |
Dec |
1995 |
0.42 |
no |
Jan |
1996 |
0.50 |
no |
Feb |
1996 |
0.85 |
no |
Mar |
1996 |
1.17 |
no |
Apr |
1996 |
1.42 |
no |
May |
1996 |
1.59 |
no |
Jun |
1996 |
1.68 |
no |
Jul |
1996 |
1.57 |
no |
Aug |
1996 |
1.45 |
no |
Sep |
1996 |
1.59 |
no |
Oct |
1996 |
1.41 |
no |
Nov |
1996 |
1.03 |
no |
Dec |
1996 |
1.26 |
no |
Jan |
1997 |
1.41 |
no |
Feb |
1997 |
1.28 |
no |
Mar |
1997 |
1.41 |
no |
Apr |
1997 |
1.59 |
no |
May |
1997 |
1.51 |
no |
Jun |
1997 |
1.42 |
no |
Jul |
1997 |
1.03 |
no |
Aug |
1997 |
1.02 |
no |
Sep |
1997 |
1.13 |
no |
Oct |
1997 |
0.92 |
no |
Nov |
1997 |
0.60 |
no |
Dec |
1997 |
0.51 |
no |
Jan |
1998 |
0.36 |
no |
Feb |
1998 |
0.34 |
no |
Mar |
1998 |
0.49 |
no |
Apr |
1998 |
0.56 |
no |
May |
1998 |
0.51 |
no |
Jun |
1998 |
0.38 |
no |
Jul |
1998 |
0.37 |
no |
Aug |
1998 |
0.30 |
no |
Sep |
1998 |
0.07 |
no |
Oct |
1998 |
0.46 |
no |
Nov |
1998 |
0.30 |
no |
Dec |
1998 |
0.15 |
no |
Jan |
1999 |
0.27 |
no |
Feb |
1999 |
0.44 |
no |
Mar |
1999 |
0.66 |
no |
Apr |
1999 |
0.77 |
no |
May |
1999 |
0.91 |
no |
Jun |
1999 |
1.18 |
no |
Jul |
1999 |
1.10 |
no |
Aug |
1999 |
1.07 |
no |
Sep |
1999 |
1.10 |
no |
Oct |
1999 |
1.09 |
no |
Nov |
1999 |
0.80 |
no |
Dec |
1999 |
0.92 |
no |
Jan |
2000 |
1.16 |
no |
Feb |
2000 |
0.79 |
no |
Mar |
2000 |
0.40 |
no |
Apr |
2000 |
0.17 |
no |
May |
2000 |
0.45 |
no |
Jun |
2000 |
0.24 |
no |
Jul |
2000 |
-0.09 |
no |
Aug |
2000 |
-0.45 |
no |
Sep |
2000 |
-0.38 |
no |
Oct |
2000 |
-0.55 |
no |
Nov |
2000 |
-0.64 |
no |
Dec |
2000 |
-0.70 |
no |
Jan |
2001 |
-0.13 |
no |
Feb |
2001 |
0.09 |
no |
Mar |
2001 |
0.35 |
yes |
Apr |
2001 |
1.17 |
yes |
May |
2001 |
1.69 |
yes |
Jun |
2001 |
1.71 |
yes |
Jul |
2001 |
1.65 |
yes |
Aug |
2001 |
1.53 |
yes |
Sep |
2001 |
2.04 |
yes |
Oct |
2001 |
2.37 |
yes |
Nov |
2001 |
2.74 |
yes |
Dec |
2001 |
3.37 |
no |
Jan |
2002 |
3.36 |
no |
Feb |
2002 |
3.15 |
no |
Mar |
2002 |
3.45 |
no |
Apr |
2002 |
3.46 |
no |
May |
2002 |
3.40 |
no |
Jun |
2002 |
3.20 |
no |
Jul |
2002 |
2.94 |
no |
Aug |
2002 |
2.61 |
no |
Sep |
2002 |
2.21 |
no |
Oct |
2002 |
2.33 |
no |
Nov |
2002 |
2.80 |
no |
Dec |
2002 |
2.82 |
no |
Jan |
2003 |
2.86 |
no |
Feb |
2003 |
2.71 |
no |
Mar |
2003 |
2.66 |
no |
Apr |
2003 |
2.81 |
no |
May |
2003 |
2.48 |
no |
Jun |
2003 |
2.39 |
no |
Jul |
2003 |
3.06 |
no |
Aug |
2003 |
3.48 |
no |
Sep |
2003 |
3.31 |
no |
Oct |
2003 |
3.35 |
no |
Nov |
2003 |
3.35 |
no |
Dec |
2003 |
3.36 |
no |
Jan |
2004 |
3.25 |
no |
Feb |
2004 |
3.14 |
no |
Mar |
2004 |
2.88 |
no |
Apr |
2004 |
3.39 |
no |
May |
2004 |
3.68 |
no |
Jun |
2004 |
3.44 |
no |
Jul |
2004 |
3.14 |
no |
Aug |
2004 |
2.78 |
no |
Sep |
2004 |
2.45 |
no |
Oct |
2004 |
2.31 |
no |
Nov |
2004 |
2.08 |
no |
Dec |
2004 |
2.01 |
no |
Jan |
2005 |
1.85 |
no |
Feb |
2005 |
1.59 |
no |
Mar |
2005 |
1.70 |
no |
Apr |
2005 |
1.50 |
no |
May |
2005 |
1.24 |
no |
Jun |
2005 |
0.96 |
no |
Jul |
2005 |
0.89 |
no |
Aug |
2005 |
0.74 |
no |
Sep |
2005 |
0.71 |
no |
Oct |
2005 |
0.67 |
no |
Nov |
2005 |
0.57 |
no |
Dec |
2005 |
0.50 |
no |
Jan |
2006 |
0.08 |
no |
Source: Haver Analytics..
|