Chart 15
Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index
Quarter |
Year |
Nonfarm Business Sector: Output Per Hour/All Persons (Difference - Year to Year; Seasonally Adjusted, 1992=100) |
Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Cost (Percent Change - Year to Year; Seasonally Adjusted, 1992=100) |
Recession Quarter? (yes/no) |
1Q |
1978 |
0.133 |
8.76% |
no |
2Q |
1978 |
1.346 |
6.87% |
no |
3Q |
1978 |
0.523 |
7.88% |
no |
4Q |
1978 |
2.093 |
6.40% |
no |
1Q |
1979 |
1.292 |
7.34% |
no |
2Q |
1979 |
-0.526 |
10.19% |
no |
3Q |
1979 |
-0.620 |
10.70% |
no |
4Q |
1979 |
-1.202 |
11.64% |
no |
1Q |
1980 |
-0.103 |
10.28% |
yes |
2Q |
1980 |
-0.792 |
11.79% |
yes |
3Q |
1980 |
-0.374 |
11.63% |
yes |
4Q |
1980 |
0.603 |
10.46% |
no |
1Q |
1981 |
1.519 |
8.99% |
no |
2Q |
1981 |
1.351 |
8.26% |
no |
3Q |
1981 |
1.756 |
7.32% |
yes |
4Q |
1981 |
-0.166 |
8.59% |
yes |
1Q |
1982 |
-1.927 |
10.83% |
yes |
2Q |
1982 |
-0.687 |
8.19% |
yes |
3Q |
1982 |
-1.275 |
8.24% |
yes |
4Q |
1982 |
0.469 |
5.77% |
yes |
1Q |
1983 |
2.014 |
2.19% |
no |
2Q |
1983 |
3.787 |
0.05% |
no |
3Q |
1983 |
4.461 |
-1.71% |
no |
4Q |
1983 |
4.158 |
-1.52% |
no |
1Q |
1984 |
3.027 |
0.10% |
no |
2Q |
1984 |
1.629 |
1.96% |
no |
3Q |
1984 |
1.173 |
3.37% |
no |
4Q |
1984 |
0.879 |
3.39% |
no |
1Q |
1985 |
1.108 |
3.11% |
no |
2Q |
1985 |
0.785 |
3.30% |
no |
3Q |
1985 |
1.564 |
2.41% |
no |
4Q |
1985 |
1.874 |
3.05% |
no |
1Q |
1986 |
2.875 |
2.00% |
no |
2Q |
1986 |
3.337 |
1.53% |
no |
3Q |
1986 |
2.581 |
2.00% |
no |
4Q |
1986 |
1.930 |
2.66% |
no |
1Q |
1987 |
0.364 |
3.24% |
no |
2Q |
1987 |
0.347 |
3.38% |
no |
3Q |
1987 |
-0.020 |
3.85% |
no |
4Q |
1987 |
1.060 |
2.21% |
no |
1Q |
1988 |
1.701 |
2.94% |
no |
2Q |
1988 |
1.355 |
3.52% |
no |
3Q |
1988 |
1.615 |
3.35% |
no |
4Q |
1988 |
1.315 |
3.05% |
no |
1Q |
1989 |
0.754 |
2.40% |
no |
2Q |
1989 |
0.663 |
1.62% |
no |
3Q |
1989 |
0.856 |
1.09% |
no |
4Q |
1989 |
0.469 |
2.23% |
no |
1Q |
1990 |
1.695 |
2.48% |
no |
2Q |
1990 |
2.098 |
3.97% |
no |
3Q |
1990 |
2.018 |
4.81% |
yes |
4Q |
1990 |
1.176 |
5.29% |
yes |
1Q |
1991 |
0.532 |
4.88% |
yes |
2Q |
1991 |
1.276 |
3.78% |
no |
3Q |
1991 |
1.577 |
3.00% |
no |
4Q |
1991 |
2.884 |
1.83% |
no |
1Q |
1992 |
4.269 |
1.48% |
no |
2Q |
1992 |
3.561 |
1.18% |
no |
3Q |
1992 |
3.851 |
1.32% |
no |
4Q |
1992 |
4.068 |
0.42% |
no |
1Q |
1993 |
1.676 |
1.15% |
no |
2Q |
1993 |
0.423 |
1.99% |
no |
3Q |
1993 |
-0.167 |
1.51% |
no |
4Q |
1993 |
-0.251 |
1.55% |
no |
1Q |
1994 |
1.276 |
1.07% |
no |
2Q |
1994 |
1.775 |
0.00% |
no |
3Q |
1994 |
0.757 |
0.56% |
no |
4Q |
1994 |
0.984 |
0.53% |
no |
1Q |
1995 |
-0.034 |
1.13% |
no |
2Q |
1995 |
0.252 |
1.69% |
no |
3Q |
1995 |
1.009 |
1.57% |
no |
4Q |
1995 |
0.875 |
2.07% |
no |
1Q |
1996 |
2.145 |
1.03% |
no |
2Q |
1996 |
3.021 |
0.52% |
no |
3Q |
1996 |
3.191 |
0.49% |
no |
4Q |
1996 |
2.494 |
0.67% |
no |
1Q |
1997 |
1.188 |
1.58% |
no |
2Q |
1997 |
1.406 |
1.21% |
no |
3Q |
1997 |
1.999 |
0.92% |
no |
4Q |
1997 |
2.293 |
1.99% |
no |
1Q |
1998 |
3.454 |
2.12% |
no |
2Q |
1998 |
2.497 |
3.68% |
no |
3Q |
1998 |
2.825 |
4.05% |
no |
4Q |
1998 |
2.954 |
2.67% |
no |
1Q |
1999 |
3.083 |
2.54% |
no |
2Q |
1999 |
2.883 |
1.63% |
no |
3Q |
1999 |
2.456 |
1.27% |
no |
4Q |
1999 |
3.833 |
1.63% |
no |
1Q |
2000 |
2.274 |
4.66% |
no |
2Q |
2000 |
4.152 |
2.94% |
no |
3Q |
2000 |
3.116 |
4.99% |
no |
4Q |
2000 |
2.298 |
4.25% |
no |
1Q |
2001 |
2.757 |
2.02% |
yes |
2Q |
2001 |
2.361 |
2.77% |
yes |
3Q |
2001 |
3.042 |
0.69% |
yes |
4Q |
2001 |
3.792 |
0.30% |
yes |
1Q |
2002 |
5.835 |
-1.54% |
no |
2Q |
2002 |
4.452 |
0.04% |
no |
3Q |
2002 |
5.256 |
-0.60% |
no |
4Q |
2002 |
3.436 |
0.24% |
no |
1Q |
2003 |
2.472 |
0.99% |
no |
2Q |
2003 |
4.243 |
0.07% |
no |
3Q |
2003 |
5.958 |
-0.43% |
no |
4Q |
2003 |
6.147 |
0.01% |
no |
1Q |
2004 |
5.874 |
-0.30% |
no |
2Q |
2004 |
5.313 |
-0.42% |
no |
3Q |
2004 |
2.794 |
1.80% |
no |
4Q |
2004 |
3.356 |
3.17% |
no |
1Q |
2005 |
3.737 |
3.38% |
no |
2Q |
2005 |
3.010 |
3.26% |
no |
3Q |
2005 |
4.091 |
1.95% |
no |
4Q |
2005 |
3.080 |
0.97% |
no |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.
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