Chart 15 Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index

Quarter Year Nonfarm Business Sector: Output Per Hour/All Persons (Difference - Year to Year; Seasonally Adjusted, 1992=100) Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Cost (Percent Change - Year to Year; Seasonally Adjusted, 1992=100) Recession Quarter? (yes/no)
1Q 1978 0.133 8.76% no
2Q 1978 1.346 6.87% no
3Q 1978 0.523 7.88% no
4Q 1978 2.093 6.40% no
1Q 1979 1.292 7.34% no
2Q 1979 -0.526 10.19% no
3Q 1979 -0.620 10.70% no
4Q 1979 -1.202 11.64% no
1Q 1980 -0.103 10.28% yes
2Q 1980 -0.792 11.79% yes
3Q 1980 -0.374 11.63% yes
4Q 1980 0.603 10.46% no
1Q 1981 1.519 8.99% no
2Q 1981 1.351 8.26% no
3Q 1981 1.756 7.32% yes
4Q 1981 -0.166 8.59% yes
1Q 1982 -1.927 10.83% yes
2Q 1982 -0.687 8.19% yes
3Q 1982 -1.275 8.24% yes
4Q 1982 0.469 5.77% yes
1Q 1983 2.014 2.19% no
2Q 1983 3.787 0.05% no
3Q 1983 4.461 -1.71% no
4Q 1983 4.158 -1.52% no
1Q 1984 3.027 0.10% no
2Q 1984 1.629 1.96% no
3Q 1984 1.173 3.37% no
4Q 1984 0.879 3.39% no
1Q 1985 1.108 3.11% no
2Q 1985 0.785 3.30% no
3Q 1985 1.564 2.41% no
4Q 1985 1.874 3.05% no
1Q 1986 2.875 2.00% no
2Q 1986 3.337 1.53% no
3Q 1986 2.581 2.00% no
4Q 1986 1.930 2.66% no
1Q 1987 0.364 3.24% no
2Q 1987 0.347 3.38% no
3Q 1987 -0.020 3.85% no
4Q 1987 1.060 2.21% no
1Q 1988 1.701 2.94% no
2Q 1988 1.355 3.52% no
3Q 1988 1.615 3.35% no
4Q 1988 1.315 3.05% no
1Q 1989 0.754 2.40% no
2Q 1989 0.663 1.62% no
3Q 1989 0.856 1.09% no
4Q 1989 0.469 2.23% no
1Q 1990 1.695 2.48% no
2Q 1990 2.098 3.97% no
3Q 1990 2.018 4.81% yes
4Q 1990 1.176 5.29% yes
1Q 1991 0.532 4.88% yes
2Q 1991 1.276 3.78% no
3Q 1991 1.577 3.00% no
4Q 1991 2.884 1.83% no
1Q 1992 4.269 1.48% no
2Q 1992 3.561 1.18% no
3Q 1992 3.851 1.32% no
4Q 1992 4.068 0.42% no
1Q 1993 1.676 1.15% no
2Q 1993 0.423 1.99% no
3Q 1993 -0.167 1.51% no
4Q 1993 -0.251 1.55% no
1Q 1994 1.276 1.07% no
2Q 1994 1.775 0.00% no
3Q 1994 0.757 0.56% no
4Q 1994 0.984 0.53% no
1Q 1995 -0.034 1.13% no
2Q 1995 0.252 1.69% no
3Q 1995 1.009 1.57% no
4Q 1995 0.875 2.07% no
1Q 1996 2.145 1.03% no
2Q 1996 3.021 0.52% no
3Q 1996 3.191 0.49% no
4Q 1996 2.494 0.67% no
1Q 1997 1.188 1.58% no
2Q 1997 1.406 1.21% no
3Q 1997 1.999 0.92% no
4Q 1997 2.293 1.99% no
1Q 1998 3.454 2.12% no
2Q 1998 2.497 3.68% no
3Q 1998 2.825 4.05% no
4Q 1998 2.954 2.67% no
1Q 1999 3.083 2.54% no
2Q 1999 2.883 1.63% no
3Q 1999 2.456 1.27% no
4Q 1999 3.833 1.63% no
1Q 2000 2.274 4.66% no
2Q 2000 4.152 2.94% no
3Q 2000 3.116 4.99% no
4Q 2000 2.298 4.25% no
1Q 2001 2.757 2.02% yes
2Q 2001 2.361 2.77% yes
3Q 2001 3.042 0.69% yes
4Q 2001 3.792 0.30% yes
1Q 2002 5.835 -1.54% no
2Q 2002 4.452 0.04% no
3Q 2002 5.256 -0.60% no
4Q 2002 3.436 0.24% no
1Q 2003 2.472 0.99% no
2Q 2003 4.243 0.07% no
3Q 2003 5.958 -0.43% no
4Q 2003 6.147 0.01% no
1Q 2004 5.874 -0.30% no
2Q 2004 5.313 -0.42% no
3Q 2004 2.794 1.80% no
4Q 2004 3.356 3.17% no
1Q 2005 3.737 3.38% no
2Q 2005 3.010 3.26% no
3Q 2005 4.091 1.95% no
4Q 2005 3.080 0.97% no

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.