Chart 14 Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index

Month Year Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index (1992=100) Recession Month? (yes/no)
Jan 1979 72.7 no
Feb 1979 73.1 no
Mar 1979 73.4 no
Apr 1979 73.1 no
May 1979 73.1 no
Jun 1979 72.9 no
Jul 1979 73.0 no
Aug 1979 73.1 no
Sep 1979 73.2 no
Oct 1979 72.5 no
Nov 1979 71.6 no
Dec 1979 71.3 no
Jan 1980 71.8 yes
Feb 1980 72.0 yes
Mar 1980 69.7 yes
Apr 1980 67.5 yes
May 1980 67.0 yes
Jun 1980 67.6 yes
Jul 1980 69.1 yes
Aug 1980 70.3 no
Sep 1980 70.3 no
Oct 1980 70.7 no
Nov 1980 71.7 no
Dec 1980 70.9 no
Jan 1981 70.6 no
Feb 1981 70.3 no
Mar 1981 71.3 no
Apr 1981 72.1 no
May 1981 71.5 no
Jun 1981 70.9 no
Jul 1981 70.8 yes
Aug 1981 71.3 yes
Sep 1981 69.8 yes
Oct 1981 69.4 yes
Nov 1981 69.0 yes
Dec 1981 69.2 yes
Jan 1982 69.1 yes
Feb 1982 68.6 yes
Mar 1982 68.2 yes
Apr 1982 68.5 yes
May 1982 68.6 yes
Jun 1982 68.1 yes
Jul 1982 68.3 yes
Aug 1982 67.9 yes
Sep 1982 68.8 yes
Oct 1982 69.4 yes
Nov 1982 70.2 yes
Dec 1982 71.2 no
Jan 1983 73.2 no
Feb 1983 74.7 no
Mar 1983 75.7 no
Apr 1983 76.3 no
May 1983 77.4 no
Jun 1983 78.0 no
Jul 1983 79.0 no
Aug 1983 78.7 no
Sep 1983 79.2 no
Oct 1983 79.5 no
Nov 1983 79.5 no
Dec 1983 79.6 no
Jan 1984 79.9 no
Feb 1984 80.1 no
Mar 1984 80.2 no
Apr 1984 79.8 no
May 1984 79.9 no
Jun 1984 79.3 no
Jul 1984 78.6 no
Aug 1984 79.0 no
Sep 1984 79.4 no
Oct 1984 79.3 no
Nov 1984 79.9 no
Dec 1984 80.2 no
Jan 1985 80.9 no
Feb 1985 81.5 no
Mar 1985 81.2 no
Apr 1985 81.3 no
May 1985 81.5 no
Jun 1985 82.4 no
Jul 1985 83.0 no
Aug 1985 82.7 no
Sep 1985 82.5 no
Oct 1985 82.8 no
Nov 1985 83.4 no
Dec 1985 84.1 no
Jan 1986 84.5 no
Feb 1986 84.5 no
Mar 1986 84.9 no
Apr 1986 85.2 no
May 1986 86.2 no
Jun 1986 86.8 no
Jul 1986 86.4 no
Aug 1986 85.9 no
Sep 1986 86.9 no
Oct 1986 87.5 no
Nov 1986 88.3 no
Dec 1986 89.2 no
Jan 1987 91.0 no
Feb 1987 92.0 no
Mar 1987 92.7 no
Apr 1987 93.2 no
May 1987 93.4 no
Jun 1987 93.4 no
Jul 1987 93.5 no
Aug 1987 94.1 no
Sep 1987 93.9 no
Oct 1987 92.0 no
Nov 1987 89.8 no
Dec 1987 89.4 no
Jan 1988 89.5 no
Feb 1988 90.2 no
Mar 1988 91.3 no
Apr 1988 91.0 no
May 1988 91.2 no
Jun 1988 92.0 no
Jul 1988 91.5 no
Aug 1988 91.6 no
Sep 1988 92.2 no
Oct 1988 93.4 no
Nov 1988 93.4 no
Dec 1988 93.7 no
Jan 1989 94.2 no
Feb 1989 93.9 no
Mar 1989 93.8 no
Apr 1989 94.4 no
May 1989 94.3 no
Jun 1989 94.5 no
Jul 1989 95.1 no
Aug 1989 96.3 no
Sep 1989 97.1 no
Oct 1989 97.0 no
Nov 1989 96.8 no
Dec 1989 96.3 no
Jan 1990 95.4 no
Feb 1990 95.6 no
Mar 1990 95.7 no
Apr 1990 95.6 no
May 1990 95.2 no
Jun 1990 95.5 no
Jul 1990 95.2 yes
Aug 1990 94.6 yes
Sep 1990 93.1 yes
Oct 1990 91.1 yes
Nov 1990 91.1 yes
Dec 1990 90.7 yes
Jan 1991 91.6 yes
Feb 1991 94.0 yes
Mar 1991 95.4 yes
Apr 1991 96.1 no
May 1991 97.4 no
Jun 1991 97.4 no
Jul 1991 97.6 no
Aug 1991 96.7 no
Sep 1991 96.9 no
Oct 1991 97.1 no
Nov 1991 96.2 no
Dec 1991 95.6 no
Jan 1992 99.1 no
Feb 1992 99.3 no
Mar 1992 98.8 no
Apr 1992 99.1 no
May 1992 99.4 no
Jun 1992 99.1 no
Jul 1992 100.0 no
Aug 1992 100.9 no
Sep 1992 100.9 no
Oct 1992 100.4 no
Nov 1992 100.9 no
Dec 1992 102.0 no
Jan 1993 101.2 no
Feb 1993 102.8 no
Mar 1993 102.6 no
Apr 1993 103.0 no
May 1993 102.4 no
Jun 1993 103.2 no
Jul 1993 103.5 no
Aug 1993 103.9 no
Sep 1993 105.2 no
Oct 1993 104.6 no
Nov 1993 105.0 no
Dec 1993 104.7 no
Jan 1994 103.7 no
Feb 1994 105.4 no
Mar 1994 105.8 no
Apr 1994 105.0 no
May 1994 105.1 no
Jun 1994 105.1 no
Jul 1994 105.2 no
Aug 1994 105.8 no
Sep 1994 106.1 no
Oct 1994 105.4 no
Nov 1994 105.8 no
Dec 1994 104.7 no
Jan 1995 105.2 no
Feb 1995 105.1 no
Mar 1995 105.3 no
Apr 1995 106.1 no
May 1995 106.9 no
Jun 1995 107.8 no
Jul 1995 107.6 no
Aug 1995 108.1 no
Sep 1995 109.6 no
Oct 1995 109.2 no
Nov 1995 109.4 no
Dec 1995 110.7 no
Jan 1996 109.2 no
Feb 1996 109.8 no
Mar 1996 109.9 no
Apr 1996 111.1 no
May 1996 112.3 no
Jun 1996 112.0 no
Jul 1996 111.5 no
Aug 1996 112.0 no
Sep 1996 112.6 no
Oct 1996 112.9 no
Nov 1996 114.2 no
Dec 1996 113.8 no
Jan 1997 114.4 no
Feb 1997 115.3 no
Mar 1997 115.7 no
Apr 1997 113.6 no
May 1997 115.4 no
Jun 1997 116.9 no
Jul 1997 118.5 no
Aug 1997 118.8 no
Sep 1997 119.5 no
Oct 1997 119.5 no
Nov 1997 119.2 no
Dec 1997 119.3 no
Jan 1998 120.1 no
Feb 1998 119.7 no
Mar 1998 120.8 no
Apr 1998 122.6 no
May 1998 122.5 no
Jun 1998 122.0 no
Jul 1998 122.1 no
Aug 1998 120.3 no
Sep 1998 119.0 no
Oct 1998 118.2 no
Nov 1998 120.0 no
Dec 1998 120.1 no
Jan 1999 120.7 no
Feb 1999 120.8 no
Mar 1999 121.3 no
Apr 1999 123.3 no
May 1999 124.6 no
Jun 1999 125.7 no
Jul 1999 125.3 no
Aug 1999 124.3 no
Sep 1999 123.3 no
Oct 1999 123.0 no
Nov 1999 125.5 no
Dec 1999 126.1 no
Jan 2000 127.2 no
Feb 2000 126.1 no
Mar 2000 127.2 no
Apr 2000 126.5 no
May 2000 125.0 no
Jun 2000 124.9 no
Jul 2000 124.9 no
Aug 2000 124.9 no
Sep 2000 125.6 no
Oct 2000 123.4 no
Nov 2000 121.6 no
Dec 2000 119.6 no
Jan 2001 121.6 no
Feb 2001 119.7 no
Mar 2001 117.4 yes
Apr 2001 118.1 yes
May 2001 120.6 yes
Jun 2001 120.4 yes
Jul 2001 119.2 yes
Aug 2001 118.4 yes
Sep 2001 115.0 yes
Oct 2001 113.2 yes
Nov 2001 116.2 yes
Dec 2001 118.6 no
Jan 2002 120.4 no
Feb 2002 119.2 no
Mar 2002 121.1 no
Apr 2002 121.4 no
May 2002 121.5 no
Jun 2002 121.5 no
Jul 2002 119.3 no
Aug 2002 118.2 no
Sep 2002 116.9 no
Oct 2002 115.8 no
Nov 2002 117.8 no
Dec 2002 118.4 no
Jan 2003 119.5 no
Feb 2003 118.2 no
Mar 2003 118.6 no
Apr 2003 120.3 no
May 2003 122.7 no
Jun 2003 124.2 no
Jul 2003 126.7 no
Aug 2003 126.9 no
Sep 2003 128.0 no
Oct 2003 128.6 no
Nov 2003 130.3 no
Dec 2003 130.3 no
Jan 2004 132.5 no
Feb 2004 132.9 no
Mar 2004 133.5 no
Apr 2004 133.7 no
May 2004 132.5 no
Jun 2004 131.3 no
Jul 2004 130.6 no
Aug 2004 130.6 no
Sep 2004 131.0 no
Oct 2004 130.8 no
Nov 2004 132.1 no
Dec 2004 133.2 no
Jan 2005 132.5 no
Feb 2005 133.9 no
Mar 2005 134.6 no
Apr 2005 133.6 no
May 2005 132.1 no
Jun 2005 133.1 no
Jul 2005 133.8 no
Aug 2005 135.0 no
Sep 2005 134.1 no
Oct 2005 134.2 no
Nov 2005 134.6 no
Dec 2005 134.7 no
Jan 2006 N/A no

Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute/Haver Analytics..