Chart 13 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Month Year University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (Not Seasonally Adjusted, Q1-66=100) Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Composite (Percent Change - Year to Year; 1941-43=10) >Recession Month? (yes/no)
Jan 1979 72.1 10.48% no
Feb 1979 73.9 10.40% no
Mar 1979 68.4 12.71% no
Apr 1979 66.0 10.10% no
May 1979 68.1 2.38% no
Jun 1979 65.8 4.17% no
Jul 1979 60.4 5.68% no
Aug 1979 64.5 3.31% no
Sep 1979 66.7 4.56% no
Oct 1979 62.1 3.87% no
Nov 1979 63.3 9.45% no
Dec 1979 61.0 12.14% no
Jan 1980 67.0 11.19% yes
Feb 1980 66.9 17.42% yes
Mar 1980 56.5 4.57% yes
Apr 1980 52.7 0.88% yes
May 1980 51.7 7.98% yes
Jun 1980 58.7 12.60% yes
Jul 1980 62.3 16.67% yes
Aug 1980 67.3 15.03% no
Sep 1980 73.7 16.49% no
Oct 1980 75.0 24.65% no
Nov 1980 76.7 30.86% no
Dec 1980 64.5 23.84% no
Jan 1981 71.4 19.93% no
Feb 1981 66.9 11.32% no
Mar 1981 66.5 27.22% no
Apr 1981 72.4 30.55% no
May 1981 76.3 22.32% no
Jun 1981 73.1 15.48% no
Jul 1981 74.1 7.76% yes
Aug 1981 77.2 4.96% yes
Sep 1981 73.1 -6.51% yes
Oct 1981 70.3 -8.00% yes
Nov 1981 62.5 -9.38% yes
Dec 1981 64.3 -7.26% yes
Jan 1982 71.0 -11.80% yes
Feb 1982 66.5 -10.83% yes
Mar 1982 62.0 -16.78% yes
Apr 1982 65.5 -13.48% yes
May 1982 67.5 -11.68% yes
Jun 1982 65.7 -17.07% yes
Jul 1982 65.4 -15.29% yes
Aug 1982 65.4 -15.41% yes
Sep 1982 69.3 3.52% yes
Oct 1982 73.4 10.73% yes
Nov 1982 72.1 12.35% yes
Dec 1982 71.9 12.59% no
Jan 1983 70.4 23.01% no
Feb 1983 74.6 28.21% no
Mar 1983 80.8 37.03% no
Apr 1983 89.1 35.59% no
May 1983 93.3 41.04% no
Jun 1983 92.2 51.68% no
Jul 1983 92.8 52.64% no
Aug 1983 90.9 48.13% no
Sep 1983 89.9 36.54% no
Oct 1983 89.3 26.38% no
Nov 1983 91.1 19.65% no
Dec 1983 94.2 17.93% no
Jan 1984 100.1 15.33% no
Feb 1984 97.4 7.12% no
Mar 1984 101.0 3.66% no
Apr 1984 96.1 -0.07% no
May 1984 98.1 -4.60% no
Jun 1984 95.5 -7.98% no
Jul 1984 96.6 -9.51% no
Aug 1984 99.1 1.23% no
Sep 1984 100.9 -0.63% no
Oct 1984 96.3 -1.69% no
Nov 1984 95.7 0.63% no
Dec 1984 92.9 0.07% no
Jan 1985 96.0 3.14% no
Feb 1985 93.7 15.03% no
Mar 1985 93.7 13.96% no
Apr 1985 94.6 14.61% no
May 1985 91.8 18.11% no
Jun 1985 96.5 23.36% no
Jul 1985 94.0 27.44% no
Aug 1985 92.4 14.53% no
Sep 1985 92.1 10.81% no
Oct 1985 88.4 12.96% no
Nov 1985 90.9 18.75% no
Dec 1985 93.9 26.01% no
Jan 1986 95.6 21.25% no
Feb 1986 95.9 21.28% no
Mar 1986 95.1 29.49% no
Apr 1986 96.2 31.76% no
May 1986 94.8 28.97% no
Jun 1986 99.3 29.86% no
Jul 1986 97.7 24.74% no
Aug 1986 94.9 30.10% no
Sep 1986 91.9 29.45% no
Oct 1986 95.6 27.56% no
Nov 1986 91.4 24.13% no
Dec 1986 89.1 19.95% no
Jan 1987 90.4 27.12% no
Feb 1987 90.2 28.06% no
Mar 1987 90.8 25.89% no
Apr 1987 92.8 21.57% no
May 1987 91.1 21.24% no
Jun 1987 91.5 22.86% no
Jul 1987 93.7 29.11% no
Aug 1987 94.4 34.43% no
Sep 1987 93.6 33.74% no
Oct 1987 89.3 17.97% no
Nov 1987 83.1 -0.03% no
Dec 1987 86.8 -3.08% no
Jan 1988 90.8 -5.30% no
Feb 1988 91.6 -8.12% no
Mar 1988 94.6 -9.14% no
Apr 1988 91.2 -9.23% no
May 1988 94.8 -11.41% no
Jun 1988 94.7 -10.19% no
Jul 1988 93.4 -13.23% no
Aug 1988 97.4 -19.93% no
Sep 1988 97.3 -15.91% no
Oct 1988 94.1 -0.99% no
Nov 1988 93.0 10.62% no
Dec 1988 91.9 14.75% no
Jan 1989 97.9 13.95% no
Feb 1989 95.4 13.66% no
Mar 1989 94.3 10.15% no
Apr 1989 91.5 15.22% no
May 1989 90.7 22.57% no
Jun 1989 90.6 19.60% no
Jul 1989 92.0 23.37% no
Aug 1989 89.6 31.43% no
Sep 1989 95.8 29.68% no
Oct 1989 93.9 25.23% no
Nov 1989 90.9 25.71% no
Dec 1989 90.5 26.06% no
Jan 1990 93.0 19.12% no
Feb 1990 89.5 12.75% no
Mar 1990 91.3 15.63% no
Apr 1990 93.9 11.77% no
May 1990 90.6 11.57% no
Jun 1990 88.3 11.31% no
Jul 1990 88.2 8.47% yes
Aug 1990 76.4 -4.62% yes
Sep 1990 72.8 -9.23% yes
Oct 1990 63.9 -11.59% yes
Nov 1990 66.0 -7.46% yes
Dec 1990 65.5 -5.69% yes
Jan 1991 66.8 -4.26% yes
Feb 1991 70.4 9.73% yes
Mar 1991 87.7 9.97% yes
Apr 1991 81.8 12.28% no
May 1991 78.3 7.92% no
Jun 1991 82.1 4.98% no
Jul 1991 82.9 5.61% no
Aug 1991 82.0 17.78% no
Sep 1991 83.0 22.76% no
Oct 1991 78.3 25.97% no
Nov 1991 69.1 22.40% no
Dec 1991 68.2 18.18% no
Jan 1992 67.5 27.83% no
Feb 1992 68.8 13.66% no
Mar 1992 76.0 9.44% no
Apr 1992 77.2 7.30% no
May 1992 79.2 9.74% no
Jun 1992 80.4 7.93% no
Jul 1992 76.6 9.16% no
Aug 1992 76.1 7.33% no
Sep 1992 75.6 8.08% no
Oct 1992 73.3 6.62% no
Nov 1992 85.3 9.57% no
Dec 1992 91.0 12.13% no
Jan 1993 89.3 4.60% no
Feb 1993 86.6 7.06% no
Mar 1993 85.9 10.51% no
Apr 1993 85.6 8.76% no
May 1993 80.3 7.34% no
Jun 1993 81.5 9.75% no
Jul 1993 77.0 7.77% no
Aug 1993 77.3 8.66% no
Sep 1993 77.9 9.74% no
Oct 1993 82.7 12.46% no
Nov 1993 81.2 9.47% no
Dec 1993 88.2 6.96% no
Jan 1994 94.3 8.68% no
Feb 1994 93.2 6.76% no
Mar 1994 91.5 3.03% no
Apr 1994 92.6 0.94% no
May 1994 92.8 1.27% no
Jun 1994 91.2 1.51% no
Jul 1994 89.0 0.92% no
Aug 1994 91.7 2.23% no
Sep 1994 91.5 1.68% no
Oct 1994 92.7 -0.02% no
Nov 1994 91.6 -0.41% no
Dec 1994 95.1 -2.31% no
Jan 1995 97.6 -1.64% no
Feb 1995 95.1 2.19% no
Mar 1995 90.3 6.33% no
Apr 1995 92.5 13.57% no
May 1995 89.8 16.17% no
Jun 1995 92.7 18.58% no
Jul 1995 94.4 23.48% no
Aug 1995 96.2 20.44% no
Sep 1995 88.9 23.94% no
Oct 1995 90.2 25.68% no
Nov 1995 88.2 29.18% no
Dec 1995 91.0 35.01% no
Jan 1996 89.3 32.06% no
Feb 1996 88.5 34.78% no
Mar 1996 93.7 31.21% no
Apr 1996 92.7 27.42% no
May 1996 89.4 26.23% no
Jun 1996 92.4 23.95% no
Jul 1996 94.7 15.56% no
Aug 1996 95.3 18.52% no
Sep 1996 94.7 16.61% no
Oct 1996 96.5 20.34% no
Nov 1996 99.2 23.53% no
Dec 1996 96.9 20.94% no
Jan 1997 97.4 24.71% no
Feb 1997 99.7 22.92% no
Mar 1997 100.0 22.42% no
Apr 1997 101.4 18.04% no
May 1997 103.2 25.99% no
Jun 1997 104.5 31.08% no
Jul 1997 107.1 43.66% no
Aug 1997 104.4 40.00% no
Sep 1997 106.0 38.84% no
Oct 1997 105.6 35.60% no
Nov 1997 107.2 27.63% no
Dec 1997 102.1 29.48% no
Jan 1998 106.6 25.73% no
Feb 1998 110.4 28.23% no
Mar 1998 106.5 35.94% no
Apr 1998 108.7 45.59% no
May 1998 106.5 33.05% no
Jun 1998 105.6 26.49% no
Jul 1998 105.2 25.00% no
Aug 1998 104.4 15.83% no
Sep 1998 100.9 8.92% no
Oct 1998 97.4 8.55% no
Nov 1998 102.7 21.89% no
Dec 1998 100.5 23.66% no
Jan 1999 103.9 29.63% no
Feb 1999 108.1 21.77% no
Mar 1999 105.7 19.02% no
Apr 1999 104.6 20.01% no
May 1999 106.8 20.18% no
Jun 1999 107.3 19.32% no
Jul 1999 106.0 19.40% no
Aug 1999 104.5 23.53% no
Sep 1999 107.2 29.15% no
Oct 1999 103.2 25.91% no
Nov 1999 107.2 21.55% no
Dec 1999 105.4 20.05% no
Jan 2000 112.0 14.16% no
Feb 2000 111.3 11.41% no
Mar 2000 107.1 12.53% no
Apr 2000 109.2 9.48% no
May 2000 110.7 6.49% no
Jun 2000 106.4 10.54% no
Jul 2000 108.3 6.66% no
Aug 2000 107.3 11.90% no
Sep 2000 106.8 11.37% no
Oct 2000 105.8 6.93% no
Nov 2000 107.6 -1.15% no
Dec 2000 98.4 -6.84% no
Jan 2001 94.7 -6.31% no
Feb 2001 90.6 -5.98% no
Mar 2001 91.5 -17.78% yes
Apr 2001 88.4 -18.58% yes
May 2001 92.0 -10.44% yes
Jun 2001 92.6 -15.27% yes
Jul 2001 92.4 -18.23% yes
Aug 2001 91.5 -20.66% yes
Sep 2001 81.8 -28.84% yes
Oct 2001 82.7 -22.56% yes
Nov 2001 83.9 -17.84% yes
Dec 2001 88.8 -13.98% no
Jan 2002 93.0 -14.63% no
Feb 2002 90.7 -15.71% no
Mar 2002 95.7 -2.70% no
Apr 2002 93.0 -6.54% no
May 2002 96.9 -15.04% no
Jun 2002 92.4 -18.14% no
Jul 2002 88.1 -24.98% no
Aug 2002 87.6 -22.57% no
Sep 2002 86.1 -16.93% no
Oct 2002 80.6 -20.62% no
Nov 2002 84.2 -19.45% no
Dec 2002 86.7 -21.46% no
Jan 2003 82.4 -21.43% no
Feb 2003 79.9 -23.90% no
Mar 2003 77.6 -26.62% no
Apr 2003 86.0 -19.96% no
May 2003 92.1 -13.28% no
Jun 2003 89.7 -2.57% no
Jul 2003 90.9 9.84% no
Aug 2003 89.3 8.44% no
Sep 2003 87.7 17.47% no
Oct 2003 89.6 21.54% no
Nov 2003 93.7 15.38% no
Dec 2003 92.6 20.18% no
Jan 2004 103.8 26.42% no
Feb 2004 94.4 36.50% no
Mar 2004 95.8 32.76% no
Apr 2004 94.2 27.31% no
May 2004 90.2 17.82% no
Jun 2004 95.6 14.65% no
Jul 2004 96.7 11.42% no
Aug 2004 95.9 10.05% no
Sep 2004 94.2 9.63% no
Oct 2004 91.7 7.64% no
Nov 2004 92.8 11.34% no
Dec 2004 97.1 10.97% no
Jan 2005 95.5 4.32% no
Feb 2005 94.1 4.92% no
Mar 2005 92.6 6.31% no
Apr 2005 87.7 2.77% no
May 2005 86.9 6.85% no
Jun 2005 96.0 6.14% no
Jul 2005 96.5 10.52% no
Aug 2005 89.1 12.43% no
Sep 2005 76.9 9.69% no
Oct 2005 74.2 6.61% no
Nov 2005 81.6 5.85% no
Dec 2005 91.5 5.24% no
Jan 2006 91.2 8.24% no

Source: University of Michigan, Wall Street Journal/Haver Analytics..