Chart 12

A flat or inverted yield curve has often preceded periods of weaker economic performance.
Month	"10 Year Treasury Yield minus Effective Federal Funds Rate, Percent"
Jan-55	1.22
Feb-55	1.36
Mar-55	1.33
Apr-55	1.32
May-55	1.33
Jun-55	1.14
Jul-55	1.22
Aug-55	1.01
Sep-55	0.79
Oct-55	0.64
Nov-55	0.54
Dec-55	0.48
Jan-56	0.45
Feb-56	0.34
Mar-56	0.46
Apr-56	0.56
May-56	0.32
Jun-56	0.29
Jul-56	0.36
Aug-56	0.60
Sep-56	0.43
Oct-56	0.38
Nov-56	0.61
Dec-56	0.65
Jan-57	0.62
Feb-57	0.34
Mar-57	0.45
Apr-57	0.48
May-57	0.60
Jun-57	0.80
Jul-57	0.94
Aug-57	0.69
Sep-57	0.45
Oct-57	0.47
Nov-57	0.44
Dec-57	0.23
Jan-58	0.37
Feb-58	1.38
Mar-58	1.78
Apr-58	1.62
May-58	2.29
Jun-58	2.04
Jul-58	2.52
Aug-58	2.01
Sep-58	2.00
Oct-58	2.00
Nov-58	1.47
Dec-58	1.44
Jan-59	1.54
Feb-59	1.53
Mar-59	1.19
Apr-59	1.16
May-59	1.41
Jun-59	0.95
Jul-59	0.93
Aug-59	0.93
Sep-59	0.92
Oct-59	0.55
Nov-59	0.53
Dec-59	0.70
Jan-60	0.73
Feb-60	0.52
Mar-60	0.41
Apr-60	0.36
May-60	0.50
Jun-60	0.83
Jul-60	0.67
Aug-60	0.82
Sep-60	1.20
Oct-60	1.42
Nov-60	1.49
Dec-60	1.86
Jan-61	2.39
Feb-61	1.24
Mar-61	1.72
Apr-61	2.29
May-61	1.73
Jun-61	2.15
Jul-61	2.75
Aug-61	2.04
Sep-61	2.10
Oct-61	1.66
Nov-61	1.33
Dec-61	1.73
Jan-62	1.93
Feb-62	1.67
Mar-62	1.08
Apr-62	1.06
May-62	1.51
Jun-62	1.23
Jul-62	1.30
Aug-62	1.05
Sep-62	1.08
Oct-62	1.03
Nov-62	0.98
Dec-62	0.93
Jan-63	0.91
Feb-63	0.92
Mar-63	0.95
Apr-63	1.07
May-63	0.93
Jun-63	1.00
Jul-63	1.00
Aug-63	0.51
Sep-63	0.60
Oct-63	0.61
Nov-63	0.64
Dec-63	0.75
Jan-64	0.69
Feb-64	0.67
Mar-64	0.79
Apr-64	0.76
May-64	0.70
Jun-64	0.67
Jul-64	0.77
Aug-64	0.69
Sep-64	0.75
Oct-64	0.83
Nov-64	0.63
Dec-64	0.33
Jan-65	0.29
Feb-65	0.23
Mar-65	0.17
Apr-65	0.11
May-65	0.11
Jun-65	0.17
Jul-65	0.11
Aug-65	0.13
Sep-65	0.28
Oct-65	0.27
Nov-65	0.35
Dec-65	0.30
Jan-66	0.19
Feb-66	0.23
Mar-66	0.22
Apr-66	0.08
May-66	-0.12
Jun-66	-0.36
Jul-66	-0.28
Aug-66	-0.31
Sep-66	-0.22
Oct-66	-0.52
Nov-66	-0.60
Dec-66	-0.56
Jan-67	-0.36
Feb-67	-0.37
Mar-67	0.01
Apr-67	0.54
May-67	0.91
Jun-67	1.04
Jul-67	1.37
Aug-67	1.38
Sep-67	1.31
Oct-67	1.60
Nov-67	1.62
Dec-67	1.19
Jan-68	0.93
Feb-68	0.85
Mar-68	0.69
Apr-68	-0.12
May-68	-0.24
Jun-68	-0.35
Jul-68	-0.52
Aug-68	-0.61
Sep-68	-0.32
Oct-68	-0.33
Nov-68	-0.12
Dec-68	0.01
Jan-69	-0.26
Feb-69	-0.42
Mar-69	-0.49
Apr-69	-1.24
May-69	-2.35
Jun-69	-2.33
Jul-69	-1.89
Aug-69	-2.50
Sep-69	-1.99
Oct-69	-1.90
Nov-69	-1.71
Dec-69	-1.32
Jan-70	-1.19
Feb-70	-1.74
Mar-70	-0.69
Apr-70	-0.71
May-70	-0.03
Jun-70	0.24
Jul-70	0.25
Aug-70	0.92
Sep-70	1.10
Oct-70	1.13
Nov-70	1.24
Dec-70	1.49
Jan-71	2.10
Feb-71	2.39
Mar-71	1.99
Apr-71	1.68
May-71	1.76
Jun-71	1.61
Jul-71	1.42
Aug-71	1.02
Sep-71	0.59
Oct-71	0.73
Nov-71	0.90
Dec-71	1.79
Jan-72	2.45
Feb-72	2.79
Mar-72	2.24
Apr-72	2.02
May-72	1.86
Jun-72	1.65
Jul-72	1.56
Aug-72	1.41
Sep-72	1.68
Oct-72	1.44
Nov-72	1.22
Dec-72	1.03
Jan-73	0.52
Feb-73	0.06
Mar-73	-0.38
Apr-73	-0.45
May-73	-0.99
Jun-73	-1.59
Jul-73	-3.27
Aug-73	-3.10
Sep-73	-3.69
Oct-73	-3.22
Nov-73	-3.30
Dec-73	-3.21
Jan-74	-2.66
Feb-74	-2.01
Mar-74	-2.14
Apr-74	-3.00
May-74	-3.73
Jun-74	-4.39
Jul-74	-5.12
Aug-74	-3.97
Sep-74	-3.30
Oct-74	-2.16
Nov-74	-1.77
Dec-74	-1.10
Jan-75	0.37
Feb-75	1.15
Mar-75	2.19
Apr-75	2.74
May-75	2.84
Jun-75	2.31
Jul-75	1.96
Aug-75	2.26
Sep-75	2.19
Oct-75	2.32
Nov-75	2.83
Dec-75	2.80
Jan-76	2.87
Feb-76	3.02
Mar-76	2.89
Apr-76	2.74
May-76	2.60
Jun-76	2.38
Jul-76	2.52
Aug-76	2.48
Sep-76	2.34
Oct-76	2.39
Nov-76	2.34
Dec-76	2.22
Jan-77	2.60
Feb-77	2.71
Mar-77	2.77
Apr-77	2.64
May-77	2.11
Jun-77	1.89
Jul-77	1.91
Aug-77	1.50
Sep-77	1.20
Oct-77	1.05
Nov-77	1.07
Dec-77	1.13
Jan-78	1.26
Feb-78	1.25
Mar-78	1.25
Apr-78	1.26
May-78	0.99
Jun-78	0.86
Jul-78	0.83
Aug-78	0.37
Sep-78	-0.03
Oct-78	-0.32
Nov-78	-0.95
Dec-78	-1.02
Jan-79	-0.97
Feb-79	-0.96
Mar-79	-0.97
Apr-79	-0.83
May-79	-0.99
Jun-79	-1.38
Jul-79	-1.52
Aug-79	-1.91
Sep-79	-2.10
Oct-79	-3.47
Nov-79	-2.53
Dec-79	-3.39
Jan-80	-3.02
Feb-80	-1.72
Mar-80	-4.44
Apr-80	-6.14
May-80	-0.80
Jun-80	0.31
Jul-80	1.22
Aug-80	1.49
Sep-80	0.64
Oct-80	-1.06
Nov-80	-3.17
Dec-80	-6.06
Jan-81	-6.51
Feb-81	-2.74
Mar-81	-1.58
Apr-81	-2.04
May-81	-4.42
Jun-81	-5.63
Jul-81	-4.76
Aug-81	-2.88
Sep-81	-0.55
Oct-81	0.07
Nov-81	0.08
Dec-81	1.35
Jan-82	1.37
Feb-82	-0.35
Mar-82	-0.82
Apr-82	-1.07
May-82	-0.83
Jun-82	0.15
Jul-82	1.36
Aug-82	2.93
Sep-82	2.03
Oct-82	1.20
Nov-82	1.35
Dec-82	1.59
Jan-83	1.78
Feb-83	2.21
Mar-83	1.74
Apr-83	1.60
May-83	1.75
Jun-83	1.87
Jul-83	2.01
Aug-83	2.29
Sep-83	2.20
Oct-83	2.06
Nov-83	2.35
Dec-83	2.36
Jan-84	2.11
Feb-84	2.25
Mar-84	2.41
Apr-84	2.34
May-84	3.09
Jun-84	2.50
Jul-84	2.13
Aug-84	1.08
Sep-84	1.22
Oct-84	2.17
Nov-84	2.14
Dec-84	3.12
Jan-85	3.03
Feb-85	3.01
Mar-85	3.28
Apr-85	3.16
May-85	2.88
Jun-85	2.63
Jul-85	2.43
Aug-85	2.43
Sep-85	2.45
Oct-85	2.25
Nov-85	1.73
Dec-85	0.99
Jan-86	1.05
Feb-86	0.84
Mar-86	0.30
Apr-86	0.31
May-86	0.86
Jun-86	0.88
Jul-86	0.74
Aug-86	1.00
Sep-86	1.56
Oct-86	1.58
Nov-86	1.21
Dec-86	0.20
Jan-87	0.65
Feb-87	1.15
Mar-87	1.12
Apr-87	1.65
May-87	1.76
Jun-87	1.67
Jul-87	1.87
Aug-87	2.03
Sep-87	2.20
Oct-87	2.23
Nov-87	2.17
Dec-87	2.22
Jan-88	1.84
Feb-88	1.63
Mar-88	1.79
Apr-88	1.85
May-88	2.00
Jun-88	1.41
Jul-88	1.31
Aug-88	1.25
Sep-88	0.79
Oct-88	0.50
Nov-88	0.61
Dec-88	0.35
Jan-89	-0.02
Feb-89	-0.19
Mar-89	-0.49
Apr-89	-0.66
May-89	-0.95
Jun-89	-1.25
Jul-89	-1.22
Aug-89	-0.88
Sep-89	-0.83
Oct-89	-0.83
Nov-89	-0.68
Dec-89	-0.61
Jan-90	-0.02
Feb-90	0.23
Mar-90	0.31
Apr-90	0.53
May-90	0.58
Jun-90	0.19
Jul-90	0.32
Aug-90	0.62
Sep-90	0.69
Oct-90	0.61
Nov-90	0.58
Dec-90	0.77
Jan-91	1.18
Feb-91	1.60
Mar-91	1.99
Apr-91	2.13
May-91	2.29
Jun-91	2.38
Jul-91	2.45
Aug-91	2.24
Sep-91	2.20
Oct-91	2.32
Nov-91	2.61
Dec-91	2.66
Jan-92	3.00
Feb-92	3.28
Mar-92	3.56
Apr-92	3.75
May-92	3.57
Jun-92	3.50
Jul-92	3.59
Aug-92	3.29
Sep-92	3.20
Oct-92	3.49
Nov-92	3.78
Dec-92	3.85
Jan-93	3.58
Feb-93	3.23
Mar-93	2.91
Apr-93	3.01
May-93	3.04
Jun-93	2.92
Jul-93	2.75
Aug-93	2.65
Sep-93	2.27
Oct-93	2.34
Nov-93	2.70
Dec-93	2.81
Jan-94	2.70
Feb-94	2.72
Mar-94	3.14
Apr-94	3.41
May-94	3.17
Jun-94	2.85
Jul-94	3.04
Aug-94	2.77
Sep-94	2.73
Oct-94	2.98
Nov-94	2.67
Dec-94	2.36
Jan-95	2.25
Feb-95	1.55
Mar-95	1.22
Apr-95	1.01
May-95	0.62
Jun-95	0.17
Jul-95	0.43
Aug-95	0.75
Sep-95	0.40
Oct-95	0.28
Nov-95	0.13
Dec-95	0.11
Jan-96	0.09
Feb-96	0.59
Mar-96	0.96
Apr-96	1.29
May-96	1.50
Jun-96	1.64
Jul-96	1.47
Aug-96	1.42
Sep-96	1.53
Oct-96	1.29
Nov-96	0.89
Dec-96	1.01
Jan-97	1.33
Feb-97	1.23
Mar-97	1.30
Apr-97	1.38
May-97	1.21
Jun-97	0.93
Jul-97	0.70
Aug-97	0.76
Sep-97	0.67
Oct-97	0.53
Nov-97	0.36
Dec-97	0.31
Jan-98	-0.02
Feb-98	0.06
Mar-98	0.16
Apr-98	0.19
May-98	0.16
Jun-98	-0.06
Jul-98	-0.08
Aug-98	-0.21
Sep-98	-0.70
Oct-98	-0.54
Nov-98	0.00
Dec-98	-0.03
Jan-99	0.09
Feb-99	0.24
Mar-99	0.42
Apr-99	0.44
May-99	0.80
Jun-99	1.14
Jul-99	0.80
Aug-99	0.87
Sep-99	0.70
Oct-99	0.91
Nov-99	0.61
Dec-99	0.98
Jan-00	1.21
Feb-00	0.79
Mar-00	0.41
Apr-00	-0.03
May-00	0.17
Jun-00	-0.43
Jul-00	-0.49
Aug-00	-0.67
Sep-00	-0.72
Oct-00	-0.77
Nov-00	-0.79
Dec-00	-1.16
Jan-01	-0.82
Feb-01	-0.39
Mar-01	-0.42
Apr-01	0.34
May-01	1.18
Jun-01	1.31
Jul-01	1.47
Aug-01	1.32
Sep-01	1.66
Oct-01	2.08
Nov-01	2.56
Dec-01	3.27
Jan-02	3.31
Feb-02	3.17
Mar-02	3.55
Apr-02	3.46
May-02	3.41
Jun-02	3.18
Jul-02	2.92
Aug-02	2.52
Sep-02	2.12
Oct-02	2.19
Nov-02	2.71
Dec-02	2.79
Jan-03	2.81
Feb-03	2.64
Mar-03	2.56
Apr-03	2.70
May-03	2.31
Jun-03	2.11
Jul-03	2.97
Aug-03	3.42
Sep-03	3.26
Oct-03	3.28
Nov-03	3.30
Dec-03	3.29
Jan-04	3.15
Feb-04	3.07
Mar-04	2.83
Apr-04	3.35
May-04	3.72
Jun-04	3.70
Jul-04	3.24
Aug-04	2.85
Sep-04	2.52
Oct-04	2.34
Nov-04	2.26
Dec-04	2.07
Jan-05	1.94
Feb-05	1.67
Mar-05	1.87
Apr-05	1.55
May-05	1.14
Jun-05	0.96
Jul-05	0.92
Aug-05	0.76
Sep-05	0.58
Oct-05	0.68
Nov-05	0.54
Dec-05	0.31
Jan-06	0.13
Feb-06	0.08
Mar-06	0.13
Apr-06	0.22

Source: FDIC calculations based on Federal Reserve data (Haver Analytics).