Chart 9
Risk spreads can spike very quickly in the case of a shock.
"Credit Spread (BAA yield less AAA yield, percent)"
Jan-61 0.78
Feb-61 0.8
Mar-61 0.8
Apr-61 0.76
May-61 0.74
Jun-61 0.7
Jul-61 0.68
Aug-61 0.66
Sep-61 0.67
Oct-61 0.71
Nov-61 0.72
Dec-61 0.68
Jan-62 0.66
Feb-62 0.65
Mar-62 0.65
Apr-62 0.69
May-62 0.72
Jun-62 0.74
Jul-62 0.71
Aug-62 0.71
Sep-62 0.71
Oct-62 0.71
Nov-62 0.71
Dec-62 0.68
Jan-63 0.7
Feb-63 0.7
Mar-63 0.69
Apr-63 0.66
May-63 0.63
Jun-63 0.61
Jul-63 0.58
Aug-63 0.54
Sep-63 0.53
Oct-63 0.51
Nov-63 0.51
Dec-63 0.5
Jan-64 0.44
Feb-64 0.47
Mar-64 0.45
Apr-64 0.45
May-64 0.44
Jun-64 0.44
Jul-64 0.43
Aug-64 0.41
Sep-64 0.4
Oct-64 0.39
Nov-64 0.38
Dec-64 0.37
Jan-65 0.37
Feb-65 0.37
Mar-65 0.36
Apr-65 0.37
May-65 0.37
Jun-65 0.39
Jul-65 0.4
Aug-65 0.39
Sep-65 0.39
Oct-65 0.37
Nov-65 0.35
Dec-65 0.34
Jan-66 0.32
Feb-66 0.34
Mar-66 0.4
Apr-66 0.45
May-66 0.5
Jun-66 0.51
Jul-66 0.52
Aug-66 0.52
Sep-66 0.6
Oct-66 0.69
Nov-66 0.78
Dec-66 0.79
Jan-67 0.77
Feb-67 0.79
Mar-67 0.72
Apr-67 0.72
May-67 0.72
Jun-67 0.71
Jul-67 0.68
Aug-67 0.71
Sep-67 0.75
Oct-67 0.7
Nov-67 0.65
Dec-67 0.74
Jan-68 0.67
Feb-68 0.7
Mar-68 0.74
Apr-68 0.76
May-68 0.76
Jun-68 0.79
Jul-68 0.74
Aug-68 0.8
Sep-68 0.82
Oct-68 0.75
Nov-68 0.82
Dec-68 0.78
Jan-69 0.73
Feb-69 0.64
Mar-69 0.66
Apr-69 0.65
May-69 0.73
Jun-69 0.72
Jul-69 0.76
Aug-69 0.89
Sep-69 0.91
Oct-69 0.89
Nov-69 0.9
Dec-69 0.93
Jan-70 0.95
Feb-70 0.85
Mar-70 0.79
Apr-70 0.87
May-70 0.87
Jun-70 0.77
Jul-70 0.96
Aug-70 1.31
Sep-70 1.3
Oct-70 1.3
Nov-70 1.33
Dec-70 1.48
Jan-71 1.38
Feb-71 1.31
Mar-71 1.25
Apr-71 1.2
May-71 1.09
Jun-71 1.11
Jul-71 1.12
Aug-71 1.17
Sep-71 1.15
Oct-71 1.09
Nov-71 1.12
Dec-71 1.13
Jan-72 1.04
Feb-72 0.96
Mar-72 1
Apr-72 0.94
May-72 0.93
Jun-72 0.97
Jul-72 1.02
Aug-72 1
Sep-72 0.87
Oct-72 0.85
Nov-72 0.87
Dec-72 0.85
Jan-73 0.75
Feb-73 0.75
Mar-73 0.74
Apr-73 0.83
May-73 0.77
Jun-73 0.76
Jul-73 0.79
Aug-73 0.85
Sep-73 1
Oct-73 0.81
Nov-73 0.75
Dec-73 0.8
Jan-74 0.65
Feb-74 0.68
Mar-74 0.61
Apr-74 0.62
May-74 0.68
Jun-74 0.8
Jul-74 0.76
Aug-74 0.77
Sep-74 0.94
Oct-74 1.21
Nov-74 1.71
Dec-74 1.74
Jan-75 1.98
Feb-75 2.03
Mar-75 1.81
Apr-75 1.63
May-75 1.79
Jun-75 1.85
Jul-75 1.71
Aug-75 1.64
Sep-75 1.66
Oct-75 1.76
Nov-75 1.78
Dec-75 1.77
Jan-76 1.81
Feb-76 1.69
Mar-76 1.6
Apr-76 1.54
May-76 1.28
Jun-76 1.27
Jul-76 1.26
Aug-76 1.19
Sep-76 1.02
Oct-76 0.97
Nov-76 0.98
Dec-76 1.14
Jan-77 1.12
Feb-77 1.08
Mar-77 1.02
Apr-77 1.03
May-77 0.96
Jun-77 0.96
Jul-77 0.93
Aug-77 0.84
Sep-77 0.88
Oct-77 0.85
Nov-77 0.87
Dec-77 0.8
Jan-78 0.76
Feb-78 0.73
Mar-78 0.75
Apr-78 0.76
May-78 0.8
Jun-78 0.84
Jul-78 0.72
Aug-78 0.79
Sep-78 0.73
Oct-78 0.7
Nov-78 0.8
Dec-78 0.78
Jan-79 0.88
Feb-79 0.82
Mar-79 0.89
Apr-79 0.95
May-79 0.97
Jun-79 1.09
Jul-79 1.09
Aug-79 1.12
Sep-79 1.1
Oct-79 1.27
Nov-79 1.23
Dec-79 1.32
Jan-80 1.33
Feb-80 1.19
Mar-80 1.49
Apr-80 2.15
May-80 2.18
Jun-80 2.13
Jul-80 1.58
Aug-80 1.51
Sep-80 1.68
Oct-80 1.92
Nov-80 1.67
Dec-80 1.93
Jan-81 2.22
Feb-81 2.02
Mar-81 2.01
Apr-81 1.68
May-81 1.63
Jun-81 2.05
Jul-81 1.79
Aug-81 1.45
Sep-81 1.43
Oct-81 1.71
Nov-81 2.17
Dec-81 2.32
Jan-82 1.92
Feb-82 1.91
Mar-82 2.24
Apr-82 2.32
May-82 2.38
Jun-82 2.11
Jul-82 2.19
Aug-82 2.61
Sep-82 2.69
Oct-82 2.61
Nov-82 2.62
Dec-82 2.31
Jan-83 2.15
Feb-83 1.94
Mar-83 1.88
Apr-83 1.78
May-83 1.63
Jun-83 1.63
Jul-83 1.24
Aug-83 1.13
Sep-83 1.18
Oct-83 1.21
Nov-83 1.2
Dec-83 1.18
Jan-84 1.45
Feb-84 1.51
Mar-84 1.42
Apr-84 1.5
May-84 1.46
Jun-84 1.5
Jul-84 1.71
Aug-84 1.76
Sep-84 1.69
Oct-84 1.31
Nov-84 1.19
Dec-84 1.27
Jan-85 1.18
Feb-85 1.1
Mar-85 1.13
Apr-85 1.28
May-85 1.43
Jun-85 1.46
Jul-85 1.46
Aug-85 1.45
Sep-85 1.41
Oct-85 1.34
Nov-85 1.44
Dec-85 1.42
Jan-86 1.39
Feb-86 1.44
Mar-86 1.5
Apr-86 1.4
May-86 1.2
Jun-86 1.21
Jul-86 1.28
Aug-86 1.46
Sep-86 1.31
Oct-86 1.38
Nov-86 1.39
Dec-86 1.48
Jan-87 1.36
Feb-87 1.27
Mar-87 1.25
Apr-87 1.19
May-87 1.18
Jun-87 1.2
Jul-87 1.19
Aug-87 1.13
Sep-87 1.13
Oct-87 1.1
Nov-87 1.22
Dec-87 1.18
Jan-88 1.19
Feb-88 1.22
Mar-88 1.18
Apr-88 1.23
May-88 1.14
Jun-88 1.14
Jul-88 1.15
Aug-88 1.1
Sep-88 1.08
Oct-88 0.9
Nov-88 1.03
Dec-88 1.08
Jan-89 1.03
Feb-89 0.97
Mar-89 0.87
Apr-89 0.82
May-89 0.89
Jun-89 0.93
Jul-89 0.94
Aug-89 0.92
Sep-89 0.9
Oct-89 0.89
Nov-89 0.92
Dec-89 0.96
Jan-90 0.95
Feb-90 0.92
Mar-90 0.84
Apr-90 0.84
May-90 0.94
Jun-90 0.96
Jul-90 0.96
Aug-90 1
Sep-90 1.08
Oct-90 1.21
Nov-90 1.32
Dec-90 1.38
Jan-91 1.41
Feb-91 1.24
Mar-91 1.16
Apr-91 1.08
May-91 1
Jun-91 0.95
Jul-91 0.89
Aug-91 0.9
Sep-91 0.9
Oct-91 0.94
Nov-91 0.97
Dec-91 0.95
Jan-92 0.93
Feb-92 0.94
Mar-92 0.9
Apr-92 0.88
May-92 0.85
Jun-92 0.83
Jul-92 0.77
Aug-92 0.7
Sep-92 0.7
Oct-92 0.85
Nov-92 0.86
Dec-92 0.83
Jan-93 0.76
Feb-93 0.68
Mar-93 0.57
Apr-93 0.68
May-93 0.78
Jun-93 0.74
Jul-93 0.76
Aug-93 0.75
Sep-93 0.68
Oct-93 0.64
Nov-93 0.73
Dec-93 0.76
Jan-94 0.73
Feb-94 0.68
Mar-94 0.65
Apr-94 0.64
May-94 0.63
Jun-94 0.68
Jul-94 0.69
Aug-94 0.67
Sep-94 0.64
Oct-94 0.63
Nov-94 0.64
Dec-94 0.64
Jan-95 0.62
Feb-95 0.59
Mar-95 0.58
Apr-95 0.57
May-95 0.55
Jun-95 0.6
Jul-95 0.63
Aug-95 0.62
Sep-95 0.61
Oct-95 0.63
Nov-95 0.66
Dec-95 0.67
Jan-96 0.66
Feb-96 0.64
Mar-96 0.68
Apr-96 0.69
May-96 0.68
Jun-96 0.69
Jul-96 0.7
Aug-96 0.72
Sep-96 0.69
Oct-96 0.68
Nov-96 0.69
Dec-96 0.69
Jan-97 0.67
Feb-97 0.63
Mar-97 0.63
Apr-97 0.61
May-97 0.62
Jun-97 0.61
Jul-97 0.61
Aug-97 0.6
Sep-97 0.55
Oct-97 0.57
Nov-97 0.55
Dec-97 0.56
Jan-98 0.58
Feb-98 0.58
Mar-98 0.6
Apr-98 0.64
May-98 0.61
Jun-98 0.6
Jul-98 0.6
Aug-98 0.62
Sep-98 0.69
Oct-98 0.81
Nov-98 0.93
Dec-98 1.01
Jan-99 1.05
Feb-99 0.99
Mar-99 0.91
Apr-99 0.84
May-99 0.79
Jun-99 0.79
Jul-99 0.76
Aug-99 0.75
Sep-99 0.81
Oct-99 0.83
Nov-99 0.79
Dec-99 0.64
Jan-00 0.55
Feb-00 0.61
Mar-00 0.69
Apr-00 0.76
May-00 0.91
Jun-00 0.81
Jul-00 0.7
Aug-00 0.71
Sep-00 0.73
Oct-00 0.79
Nov-00 0.83
Dec-00 0.81
Jan-01 0.78
Feb-01 0.77
Mar-01 0.86
Apr-01 0.87
May-01 0.78
Jun-01 0.79
Jul-01 0.84
Aug-01 0.83
Sep-01 0.86
Oct-01 0.88
Nov-01 0.84
Dec-01 1.28
Jan-02 1.32
Feb-02 1.38
Mar-02 1.3
Apr-02 1.27
May-02 1.34
Jun-02 1.32
Jul-02 1.37
Aug-02 1.21
Sep-02 1.25
Oct-02 1.41
Nov-02 1.31
Dec-02 1.24
Jan-03 1.18
Feb-03 1.11
Mar-03 1.06
Apr-03 1.11
May-03 1.16
Jun-03 1.22
Jul-03 1.13
Aug-03 1.13
Sep-03 1.07
Oct-03 1.03
Nov-03 1.01
Dec-03 0.98
Jan-04 0.9
Feb-04 0.77
Mar-04 0.78
Apr-04 0.73
May-04 0.71
Jun-04 0.77
Jul-04 0.8
Aug-04 0.81
Sep-04 0.81
Oct-04 0.74
Nov-04 0.68
Dec-04 0.68
Jan-05 0.66
Feb-05 0.62
Mar-05 0.66
Apr-05 0.72
May-05 0.86
Jun-05 0.9
Jul-05 0.89
Aug-05 0.87
Sep-05 0.9
Oct-05 0.95
Nov-05 0.97
Dec-05 0.95
Jan-06 0.94
Feb-06 0.92
Source: Federal Reserve