Table 9: Ordered Logistic Regression Results, 1996–2000 (1-Quarter Lag)
This table presents ordered logistic regression results for a sample of 1,452 new bank holding company inspections.  The ordering is BOPEC downgrades, no change in ratings, and BOPEC upgrades.  All independent variables are defined in table 5.  A single, double, or triple "*" indiciates significance at the 10%, 5%, or 1% level, respectively.
 

Specification
 

Anticipated Sign

1

2

3

Independent Variable

  

Coefficient

t-statistic

Coefficient

t-statistic

Coefficent

t-statistic

Intercept 1

-11.92

7.69***

-13.71

10.59***

-15.27

8.53***

Intercept 2

-4.53

3.06***

-7.18

5.94***

-7.54

4.45***

Size of Institution

LN_ASSET

–

–0.11

2.05***

-0.01

0.16

-0.08

1.39

Past Supervisory Variables

BOPEC-1

+

14.97

11.26***

11.49

10.98***

16.40

11.23***

BOPEC-2

+

11.03

9.19***

8.65

9.05***

12.20

9.26***

BOPEC-3

+

4.60

4.22***

3.32

3.63***

5.39

4.56***

PROB_BK

+

4.67

9.23***

4.67

10.04***

4.70

9.18***

INSP_AGE

+

–0.8x10-3

2.70***

–0.8x10-3 

3.07***

–0.7x10-3 

2.51***

Financial Accounting Variables

EQ_ASSET

–

–0.14

3.21***

  

–0.15

3.13***

PD90_ASSET

+

3.09

6.24***

3.10

6.10***

NA_ASSET

+

0.81

3.4***

0.89

3.64***

LLR_ASSET

–

-0.34

1.34

-0.26

0.00

LPROV_ASSET

 +

1.91

2.58***

2.11

2.71***

CHARG_ASSET

–

-0.64

1.06

-0.75

1.13

ROA

–

-1.76

8.09***

-1.59

6.61***

LIQ_ASSET

–

-0.01

1.78

-0.01

1.12

TD100_ASSET

+

0.03

2.2**

0.23

1.91*

Financial Market Variables

COVAR_PRICE

+

  

-0.02

1.49

-0.01

0.97

EX_RETURN

–

-1.82

4.07***

-1.89

3.82***

STD_RETURN

+

53.43

6.57***

46.58

5.13***

MKT_BK

–

-0.18

2.02**

-0.01

0.06

TURNOVER

+

0.01

1.87*

0.01

1.92*

AIC

 

1,206.73

  

1,336.68

   1,171

 

Rescaled R2

  

0.45

  

0.35

   0.48

 

c2 (relative to spec. 1)

 45.20***

 

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