Table 8: Ordered Logistic Regressions, 1993–1995 (1-Quarter Lag)
This table presents ordered logistic regression results for a sample of 787 new bank holding company inspections.  The ordering is BOPEC downgrades, no change in ratings, and BOPEC upgrades.  All independent variables are defined in Table 5.  A single, double, or triple "*" indiciates significance at the 10%, 5%, or 1% level, respectively.
 

Specification
 

Anticipated Sign

1

2

3

Independent Variable

  

Coefficient

t-statistic

Coefficient

t-statistic

Coefficent

t-statistic

Intercept 1

-10.4

5.80***

–11.78

7.44***

–12.29

6.05***

Intercept 2

-4.12

2.40**

–6.15

4.14***

-5.74

2.97***

Size of Institution

LN_ASSET

–

–0.2

2.63***

0.05

0.66

–0.14

1.57

Past Supervisory Variables

BOPEC-1

+

14.52

9.85***

9.69

9.63***

15.83

10.53***

BOPEC-2

+

11.14

8.56***

6.96

8.09***

12.06

9.28***

BOPEC-3

+

5.86

5.10***

2.05

2.80***

6.42

5.75***

BOPEC-4

+

3.71

3.52***

1.16

1.63

3.88

3.85***

PROB_BK

+

2.68

5.80***

3.19

7.34***

2.65

5.53***

INSP_AGE

+

–0.4x10-3

0.99

–0.3x10-3 

0.75

–0.3x10-3 

0.74

Financial Accounting Variables

EQ_ASSET

–

–0.26

4.15***

  

–0.27

4.13***

PD90_ASSET

+

1.12

2.75**

0.98

2.37***

NA_ASSET

+

0.62

4.92***

0.51

3.87***

LLR_ASSET

–

0.01

0.04

0.12

0.6

LPROV_ASSET

  

-0.03

0.08

0.20

0.52

CHARG_ASSET

–

0.16

0.47

0.23

0.62

ROA

–

-0.83

5.06***

-0.60

3.65***

LIQ_ASSET

–

-0.01

0.96

-0.01

0.8

TD100_ASSET

+

0.07

3.00***

0.07

3.25***

Financial Market Variables

COVAR_PRICE

+

    

0.04

1.65*

0.08

0.27

EX_RETURN

–

    

-0.49

0.93

0.5

0.87

STD_RETURN

+

    

34.87

5.36***

19.93

2.72***

MKT_BK

–

    

-0.66

2.94

-0.83

3.29***

TURNOVER

+

    

0.07

0.97

0.01

1.45

AIC

 

836.07

  

914.58

   820.64

 

Rescaled R2

  

0.58

  

0.39

   0.55

 

c2 (relative to spec. 1)

   25.43***

 

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