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Survey of Real Estate Trends

NATIONAL RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY OF REAL ESTATE TRENDS

Percent of Respondents

Six-Month Period Ending:
  06/00 12/00 06/01 12/01 06/02
SINGLE-FAMILY
How would you characterize the current single-family market? A tight market 15.0 7.7 5.9 1.6 7.0
Some tightness 30.0 23.8 23.7 14.2 26.2
Supply and demand in balance 40.3 51.1 42.3 51.6 39.3
Some excess capacity 13.7 14.9 25.3 31.1 24.9
Excess inventory 0.9 2.6 2.8 1.6 2.2
Not sure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
How would you characterize the current volume of existing single-family home sales now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.4 1.3
A little higher 23.6 17.0 26.9 16.1 28.4
About the same 44.6 46.4 44.7 39.8 42.4
A little lower 29.6 34.9 24.9 39.0 26.6
A lot lower 0.0 1.3 1.6 3.9 0.9
Not sure 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4
How would you characterize the current volume of new single-family home sales now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.6
A little higher 26.2 14.5 26.5 18.9 29.7
About the same 45.5 46.4 41.9 33.5 40.2
A little lower 26.2 36.6 26.5 43.3 24.5
A lot lower 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 0.9
Not sure 0.4 0.9 2.0 1.2 2.2
How would you characterize the current volume of single-family new home construction now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 3.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2
A little higher 20.6 13.6 22.1 11.8 26.2
About the same 49.4 42.6 50.2 42.5 43.2
A little lower 24.9 39.6 24.1 41.3 26.2
A lot lower 0.9 2.1 2.4 2.4 0.9
Not sure 1.3 1.3 0.8 2.0 1.3
How would you characterize the sales prices of existing single-family homes now compared to 6 months ago? A lot higher 5.6 1.7 2.8 1.6 4.8
A little higher 51.5 41.3 43.1 22.8 46.7
About the same 35.6 47.2 38.7 54.7 40.6
A little lower 6.9 9.8 13.8 18.5 7.9
A lot lower 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0
Not sure 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0
How would you characterize the sales prices of new single-family homes now compared to 6 months ago? A lot higher 5.2 1.7 2.8 1.2 4.8
A little higher 55.4 45.1 48.2 29.5 49.3
About the same 35.2 48.9 39.5 53.1 40.2
A little lower 3.0 3.8 7.1 13.4 5.2
A lot lower 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.0
Not sure 0.9 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.4
What would you say is the general condition of the single-family market now compared to 6 months ago?
A lot better 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 3.5
A little better 23.6 15.7 19.0 9.1 23.1
About the same 57.9 56.2 53.0 48.8 48.9
A little worse 16.7 26.4 25.3 40.2 23.1
A lot worse 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.9
Not sure 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
MULTIFAMILY
How would you characterize the current multifamily market? A tight market 11.7 5.6 8.7 1.2 1.9
Some tightness 27.8 24.2 19.7 16.2 13.4
Supply and demand in balance 45.0 50.3 49.1 46.2 38.9
Some excess capacity 14.4 18.6 20.8 32.9 39.5
Excess inventory 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.9 5.7
Not sure 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6
How would you characterize the current apartment vacancy rates now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 2.5
A little higher 17.8 15.5 25.4 33.5 40.1
About the same 62.2 70.2 59.0 54.9 48.4
A little lower 18.3 11.8 11.0 9.8 7.0
A lot lower 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.0 0.0
Not sure 1.7 1.2 1.7 0.6 1.9
How would you characterize the current volume of rental apartment construction now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little higher 22.2 11.8 17.3 5.8 15.3
About the same 51.7 54.7 55.5 48.0 45.9
A little lower 19.4 28.0 22.5 40.5 28.7
A lot lower 1.7 0.6 2.3 3.5 4.5
Not sure 3.3 3.7 2.3 2.3 5.7
What would you say is the general condition of the multifamily market now compared to 6 months ago? A lot better 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little better 17.2 12.4 13.9 6.9 6.4
About the same 72.2 74.5 65.3 51.4 50.3
A little worse 8.9 12.4 19.7 39.3 41.4
A lot worse 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.9
Not sure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0
OFFICE
How would you characterize the current office market? A tight market 9.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0
Some tightness 21.6 13.1 4.5 4.4 0.6
Supply and demand in balance 37.4 51.2 30.7 15.5 20.8
Some excess capacity 28.1 28.0 54.7 59.7 48.8
Excess inventory 2.9 3.6 9.5 20.4 29.8
Not sure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
How would you characterize rental rates for office space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
A little higher 26.9 22.6 10.1 3.3 4.8
About the same 59.6 71.4 53.1 44.8 44.0
A little lower 7.0 5.4 33.0 40.9 39.3
A lot lower 0.0 0.0 3.4 7.7 7.7
Not sure 1.2 0.6 0.6 3.3 2.4
How would you characterize the current volume of speculative office construction (i.e., not presold or preleased) now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.7 0.0
A little higher 18.1 17.3 15.1 12.7 8.3
About the same 56.1 47.6 47.5 34.3 35.1
A little lower 15.8 24.4 23.5 35.9 36.9
A lot lower 2.3 3.0 6.1 12.2 14.9
Not sure 5.3 6.5 6.7 3.3 4.8
How would you characterize the sales prices of a common class of office properties? Increasing rapidly 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increasing moderately 33.3 21.4 11.2 3.9 4.8
Holding steady 57.9 67.9 62.0 50.8 53.0
Decreasing moderately 2.3 6.0 19.0 37.6 33.3
Decreasing steadily 0.6 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2
Not sure 5.3 4.8 7.3 6.1 7.7
How common are leasing concessions (such as free rent, tenant finish, build out, etc.) for office space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot more common 0.6 0.0 4.5 11.6 8.9
A little more common 8.2 10.1 33.0 42.0 46.4
About the same 57.9 66.7 44.7 32.6 33.9
A little less common 15.2 6.5 2.8 0.0 0.6
A lot less common 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.6
No concessions are offered 5.8 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.8
Not sure 9.4 8.9 10.6 11.6 7.7
What would you say is the general condition of the office market now compared with 6 months ago? A lot better 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little better 17.5 14.3 5.0 1.1 1.8
About the same 71.9 69.0 46.4 32.6 32.7
A little worse 10.5 15.5 44.1 53.6 54.2
A lot worse 0.0 1.2 4.5 12.7 11.3
Not sure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RETAIL
How would you characterize the current retail market? A tight market 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Some tightness 17.5 10.4 5.2 2.1 0.7
Supply and demand in balance 51.7 54.5 50.7 33.3 31.4
Some excess capacity 25.9 33.8 40.3 56.9 62.0
Excess inventory 2.8 1.3 3.0 7.6 5.8
Not sure 1.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0
How would you characterize rental rates for retail space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little higher 21.0 19.5 6.7 1.4 3.6
About the same 69.2 67.5 64.9 58.3 60.6
A little lower 6.3 9.7 23.1 33.3 32.8
A lot lower 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.7
Not sure 3.5 3.2 5.2 4.2 2.2
How would you characterize the sales prices of retail properties? Increasing rapidly 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increasing moderately 22.4 15.6 7.5 4.2 2.2
Holding steady 67.8 72.7 64.2 58.3 64.2
Decreasing moderately 4.2 7.1 18.7 30.6 28.5
Decreasing steadily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0
Not sure 5.6 4.5 9.7 6.3 5.1
How common are leasing concessions (such as free rent, tenant finish, build out, etc.) for retail space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot more common 0.0 0.6 1.5 3.5 2.2
A little more common 8.4 11.0 26.1 43.1 37.2
About the same 65.7 65.6 51.5 36.8 46.0
A little less common 7.0 4.5 1.5 1.4 0.7
A lot less common 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
No concessions are offered 5.6 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.6
Not sure 12.6 13.0 15.7 11.8 10.2
What would you say is the general condition of the retail market now compared with 6 months ago? A lot better 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little better 10.5 7.1 3.0 1.4 2.2
About the same 78.3 75.3 62.7 44.4 54.7
A little worse 11.2 16.9 34.3 51.4 42.3
A lot worse 0.0 0.6 0.0 2.8 0.7
Not sure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
INDUSTRIAL
How would you characterize the current industrial market? A tight market 4.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Some tightness 24.7 11.0 5.4 2.0 2.4
Supply and demand in balance 57.0 65.9 60.2 39.0 32.9
Some excess capacity 10.8 19.8 29.0 47.0 50.0
Excess inventory 2.2 2.2 5.4 11.0 13.4
Not sure 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2
How would you characterize rental rates for industrial space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot higher 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little higher 26.9 15.4 5.4 2.0 2.4
About the same 64.5 72.5 68.8 55.0 56.1
A little lower 3.2 9.9 20.4 39.0 39.0
A lot lower 1.1 1.1 2.2 3.0 1.2
Not sure 2.2 1.1 3.2 1.0 1.2
How would you characterize the sales prices of industrial properties? Increasing rapidly 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increasing moderately 30.1 18.7 4.3 0.0 3.7
Holding steady 60.2 74.7 77.4 62.0 64.6
Decreasing moderately 4.3 5.5 11.8 31.0 29.3
Decreasing steadily 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.0 1.2
Not sure 4.3 1.1 4.3 5.0 1.2
How common are leasing concessions (such as free rent, tenant finish, build out, etc.) for industrial space now compared with 6 months ago? A lot more common 0.0 0.0 2.2 7.0 3.7
A little more common 3.2 9.9 22.6 35.0 31.7
About the same 67.7 70.3 61.3 41.0 48.8
A little less common 12.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
A lot less common 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
No concessions are offered 6.5 3.3 2.2 5.0 4.9
Not sure 9.7 11.0 9.7 10.0 8.5
What would you say is the general condition of the industrial market now compared with 6 months ago? A lot better 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
A little better 19.4 12.1 3.2 1.0 2.4
About the same 73.1 75.8 71.0 49.0 56.1
A little worse 5.4 9.9 22.6 45.0 36.6
A lot worse 0.0 1.1 3.2 5.0 4.9
Not sure 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MARKET DISLOCATION2
Assess foreclosures of commercial real estate loans as a potential sign of a troubled real estate market and rate your assessment at the present time compared to 6 months ago. Much more now than 6 months ago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0
Somewhat more now than 6 months ago 5.1 7.1 12.0 18.5 17.9
About the same 64.7 69.3 69.7 63.4 60.7
Somewhat less now than 6 months ago 7.7 2.5 4.4 1.6 1.7
Much less now than 6 months ago 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Not sure 21.7 20.6 13.9 16.1 19.7
Assess commercial and retail bankruptcies as a potential sign of a troubled real estate market and rate your assessment at the present time compared to 6 months ago. Much more now than 6 months ago 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.2 0.9
Somewhat more now than 6 months ago 13.2 21.0 31.9 39.8 35.8
About the same 59.2 53.8 49.8 44.5 42.8
Somewhat less now than 6 months ago 7.2 5.0 2.8 0.8 1.7
Much less now than 6 months ago 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Not sure 20.0 19.8 15.5 13.8 18.8
Assess the length of time to lease a property as a potential sign of a troubled real estate market and rate your assessment at the present time compared to 6 months ago. Much more now than 6 months ago 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.8 0.9
Somewhat more now than 6 months ago 12.3 19.3 36.3 54.3 47.6
About the same 55.3 55.0 39.8 24.4 31.4
Somewhat less now than 6 months ago 9.4 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.6
Much less now than 6 months ago 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Not sure 22.6 23.1 20.7 16.5 17.5

2 The results for this section were recalculated to reflect the removal of survey responses that did not answer these questions, which were previously included in the "Not Sure" response.

Last Updated 09/19/2002 insurance-research@fdic.gov

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