Chart 5. The title is "Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Loan Loss Rates May Follow Speculative Corporate Bond Default Rate Lower."

A line chart showing the commercial and industrial (C&I) loan charge-off rate and the default rate for speculative-grade corporate bonds from 1991 through first quarter 2003. Both rates are essentially U-shaped. In 1991, the C&I charge-off rate was 8 percent, and the corporate bond default rate was 12 percent. By 1995, both rates had dropped to 1 percent. The C&I loan charge-off rate rose steadily to 2 percent in early 2002; the bond default rate reached 2 percent later that year. So far in 2003, the C&I loan charge-off rate has dropped to 1 percent and the corporate bond default rate has dropped to 1.75 percent.