Chart 4. The title is "Pace of Speculative Bond Defaults Expected to Rise Significantly." This is a bar and line graph showing that the trailing 12-month speculative-grade bond default rate and the bank C&I noncurrent rate have tracked the ratio of bond rating downgrades to upgrades. The highest points since 1988 were in 1990-1991; the lowest points were in 1996; currently, all three measures are rising.