| Chart
1
|
| A flat or inverted yield curve has historically been associated with a higher frequency of U.S. recession within one to two years. | ||
| Date (yyyymm) | Recession Indicator: 1 = recession; -1 = no recession | Treasury yield curve: 10-year Treasury yield minus effective federal funds rate (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|
| 195407 | -1 | 1.50 |
| 195408 | -1 | 1.14 |
| 195409 | -1 | 1.32 |
| 195410 | -1 | 1.58 |
| 195411 | -1 | 1.65 |
| 195412 | -1 | 1.23 |
| 195501 | -1 | 1.22 |
| 195502 | -1 | 1.36 |
| 195503 | -1 | 1.33 |
| 195504 | -1 | 1.32 |
| 195505 | -1 | 1.33 |
| 195506 | -1 | 1.14 |
| 195507 | -1 | 1.22 |
| 195508 | -1 | 1.01 |
| 195509 | -1 | 0.79 |
| 195510 | -1 | 0.64 |
| 195511 | -1 | 0.54 |
| 195512 | -1 | 0.48 |
| 195601 | -1 | 0.45 |
| 195602 | -1 | 0.34 |
| 195603 | -1 | 0.46 |
| 195604 | -1 | 0.56 |
| 195605 | -1 | 0.32 |
| 195606 | -1 | 0.29 |
| 195607 | -1 | 0.36 |
| 195608 | -1 | 0.60 |
| 195609 | -1 | 0.43 |
| 195610 | -1 | 0.38 |
| 195611 | -1 | 0.61 |
| 195612 | -1 | 0.65 |
| 195701 | -1 | 0.62 |
| 195702 | -1 | 0.34 |
| 195703 | -1 | 0.45 |
| 195704 | -1 | 0.48 |
| 195705 | -1 | 0.60 |
| 195706 | -1 | 0.80 |
| 195707 | -1 | 0.94 |
| 195708 | 1 | 0.69 |
| 195709 | 1 | 0.45 |
| 195710 | 1 | 0.47 |
| 195711 | 1 | 0.44 |
| 195712 | 1 | 0.23 |
| 195801 | 1 | 0.37 |
| 195802 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 195803 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 195804 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 195805 | -1 | 2.29 |
| 195806 | -1 | 2.04 |
| 195807 | -1 | 2.52 |
| 195808 | -1 | 2.01 |
| 195809 | -1 | 2.00 |
| 195810 | -1 | 2.00 |
| 195811 | -1 | 1.47 |
| 195812 | -1 | 1.44 |
| 195901 | -1 | 1.54 |
| 195902 | -1 | 1.53 |
| 195903 | -1 | 1.19 |
| 195904 | -1 | 1.16 |
| 195905 | -1 | 1.41 |
| 195906 | -1 | 0.95 |
| 195907 | -1 | 0.93 |
| 195908 | -1 | 0.93 |
| 195909 | -1 | 0.92 |
| 195910 | -1 | 0.55 |
| 195911 | -1 | 0.53 |
| 195912 | -1 | 0.70 |
| 196001 | -1 | 0.73 |
| 196002 | -1 | 0.52 |
| 196003 | -1 | 0.41 |
| 196004 | 1 | 0.36 |
| 196005 | 1 | 0.50 |
| 196006 | 1 | 0.83 |
| 196007 | 1 | 0.67 |
| 196008 | 1 | 0.82 |
| 196009 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 196010 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 196011 | 1 | 1.49 |
| 196012 | 1 | 1.86 |
| 196101 | 1 | 2.39 |
| 196102 | 1 | 1.24 |
| 196103 | -1 | 1.72 |
| 196104 | -1 | 2.29 |
| 196105 | -1 | 1.73 |
| 196106 | -1 | 2.15 |
| 196107 | -1 | 2.75 |
| 196108 | -1 | 2.04 |
| 196109 | -1 | 2.10 |
| 196110 | -1 | 1.66 |
| 196111 | -1 | 1.33 |
| 196112 | -1 | 1.73 |
| 196201 | -1 | 1.93 |
| 196202 | -1 | 1.67 |
| 196203 | -1 | 1.08 |
| 196204 | -1 | 1.06 |
| 196205 | -1 | 1.51 |
| 196206 | -1 | 1.23 |
| 196207 | -1 | 1.30 |
| 196208 | -1 | 1.05 |
| 196209 | -1 | 1.08 |
| 196210 | -1 | 1.03 |
| 196211 | -1 | 0.98 |
| 196212 | -1 | 0.93 |
| 196301 | -1 | 0.91 |
| 196302 | -1 | 0.92 |
| 196303 | -1 | 0.95 |
| 196304 | -1 | 1.07 |
| 196305 | -1 | 0.93 |
| 196306 | -1 | 1.00 |
| 196307 | -1 | 1.00 |
| 196308 | -1 | 0.51 |
| 196309 | -1 | 0.60 |
| 196310 | -1 | 0.61 |
| 196311 | -1 | 0.64 |
| 196312 | -1 | 0.75 |
| 196401 | -1 | 0.69 |
| 196402 | -1 | 0.67 |
| 196403 | -1 | 0.79 |
| 196404 | -1 | 0.76 |
| 196405 | -1 | 0.70 |
| 196406 | -1 | 0.67 |
| 196407 | -1 | 0.77 |
| 196408 | -1 | 0.69 |
| 196409 | -1 | 0.75 |
| 196410 | -1 | 0.83 |
| 196411 | -1 | 0.63 |
| 196412 | -1 | 0.33 |
| 196501 | -1 | 0.29 |
| 196502 | -1 | 0.23 |
| 196503 | -1 | 0.17 |
| 196504 | -1 | 0.11 |
| 196505 | -1 | 0.11 |
| 196506 | -1 | 0.17 |
| 196507 | -1 | 0.11 |
| 196508 | -1 | 0.13 |
| 196509 | -1 | 0.28 |
| 196510 | -1 | 0.27 |
| 196511 | -1 | 0.35 |
| 196512 | -1 | 0.30 |
| 196601 | -1 | 0.19 |
| 196602 | -1 | 0.23 |
| 196603 | -1 | 0.22 |
| 196604 | -1 | 0.08 |
| 196605 | -1 | -0.12 |
| 196606 | -1 | -0.36 |
| 196607 | -1 | -0.28 |
| 196608 | -1 | -0.31 |
| 196609 | -1 | -0.22 |
| 196610 | -1 | -0.52 |
| 196611 | -1 | -0.60 |
| 196612 | -1 | -0.56 |
| 196701 | -1 | -0.36 |
| 196702 | -1 | -0.37 |
| 196703 | -1 | 0.01 |
| 196704 | -1 | 0.54 |
| 196705 | -1 | 0.91 |
| 196706 | -1 | 1.04 |
| 196707 | -1 | 1.37 |
| 196708 | -1 | 1.38 |
| 196709 | -1 | 1.31 |
| 196710 | -1 | 1.60 |
| 196711 | -1 | 1.62 |
| 196712 | -1 | 1.19 |
| 196801 | -1 | 0.93 |
| 196802 | -1 | 0.85 |
| 196803 | -1 | 0.69 |
| 196804 | -1 | -0.12 |
| 196805 | -1 | -0.24 |
| 196806 | -1 | -0.35 |
| 196807 | -1 | -0.52 |
| 196808 | -1 | -0.61 |
| 196809 | -1 | -0.32 |
| 196810 | -1 | -0.33 |
| 196811 | -1 | -0.12 |
| 196812 | -1 | 0.01 |
| 196901 | -1 | -0.26 |
| 196902 | -1 | -0.42 |
| 196903 | -1 | -0.49 |
| 196904 | -1 | -1.24 |
| 196905 | -1 | -2.35 |
| 196906 | -1 | -2.33 |
| 196907 | -1 | -1.89 |
| 196908 | -1 | -2.50 |
| 196909 | -1 | -1.99 |
| 196910 | -1 | -1.90 |
| 196911 | -1 | -1.71 |
| 196912 | 1 | -1.32 |
| 197001 | 1 | -1.19 |
| 197002 | 1 | -1.74 |
| 197003 | 1 | -0.69 |
| 197004 | 1 | -0.71 |
| 197005 | 1 | -0.03 |
| 197006 | 1 | 0.24 |
| 197007 | 1 | 0.25 |
| 197008 | 1 | 0.92 |
| 197009 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 197010 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 197011 | 1 | 1.24 |
| 197012 | -1 | 1.49 |
| 197101 | -1 | 2.10 |
| 197102 | -1 | 2.39 |
| 197103 | -1 | 1.99 |
| 197104 | -1 | 1.68 |
| 197105 | -1 | 1.76 |
| 197106 | -1 | 1.61 |
| 197107 | -1 | 1.42 |
| 197108 | -1 | 1.02 |
| 197109 | -1 | 0.59 |
| 197110 | -1 | 0.73 |
| 197111 | -1 | 0.90 |
| 197112 | -1 | 1.79 |
| 197201 | -1 | 2.45 |
| 197202 | -1 | 2.79 |
| 197203 | -1 | 2.24 |
| 197204 | -1 | 2.02 |
| 197205 | -1 | 1.86 |
| 197206 | -1 | 1.65 |
| 197207 | -1 | 1.56 |
| 197208 | -1 | 1.41 |
| 197209 | -1 | 1.68 |
| 197210 | -1 | 1.44 |
| 197211 | -1 | 1.22 |
| 197212 | -1 | 1.03 |
| 197301 | -1 | 0.52 |
| 197302 | -1 | 0.06 |
| 197303 | -1 | -0.38 |
| 197304 | -1 | -0.45 |
| 197305 | -1 | -0.99 |
| 197306 | -1 | -1.59 |
| 197307 | -1 | -3.27 |
| 197308 | -1 | -3.10 |
| 197309 | -1 | -3.69 |
| 197310 | -1 | -3.22 |
| 197311 | 1 | -3.30 |
| 197312 | 1 | -3.21 |
| 197401 | 1 | -2.66 |
| 197402 | 1 | -2.01 |
| 197403 | 1 | -2.14 |
| 197404 | 1 | -3.00 |
| 197405 | 1 | -3.73 |
| 197406 | 1 | -4.39 |
| 197407 | 1 | -5.12 |
| 197408 | 1 | -3.97 |
| 197409 | 1 | -3.30 |
| 197410 | 1 | -2.16 |
| 197411 | 1 | -1.77 |
| 197412 | 1 | -1.10 |
| 197501 | 1 | 0.37 |
| 197502 | 1 | 1.15 |
| 197503 | 1 | 2.19 |
| 197504 | -1 | 2.74 |
| 197505 | -1 | 2.84 |
| 197506 | -1 | 2.31 |
| 197507 | -1 | 1.96 |
| 197508 | -1 | 2.26 |
| 197509 | -1 | 2.19 |
| 197510 | -1 | 2.32 |
| 197511 | -1 | 2.83 |
| 197512 | -1 | 2.80 |
| 197601 | -1 | 2.87 |
| 197602 | -1 | 3.02 |
| 197603 | -1 | 2.89 |
| 197604 | -1 | 2.74 |
| 197605 | -1 | 2.60 |
| 197606 | -1 | 2.38 |
| 197607 | -1 | 2.52 |
| 197608 | -1 | 2.48 |
| 197609 | -1 | 2.34 |
| 197610 | -1 | 2.39 |
| 197611 | -1 | 2.34 |
| 197612 | -1 | 2.22 |
| 197701 | -1 | 2.60 |
| 197702 | -1 | 2.71 |
| 197703 | -1 | 2.77 |
| 197704 | -1 | 2.64 |
| 197705 | -1 | 2.11 |
| 197706 | -1 | 1.89 |
| 197707 | -1 | 1.91 |
| 197708 | -1 | 1.50 |
| 197709 | -1 | 1.20 |
| 197710 | -1 | 1.05 |
| 197711 | -1 | 1.07 |
| 197712 | -1 | 1.13 |
| 197801 | -1 | 1.26 |
| 197802 | -1 | 1.25 |
| 197803 | -1 | 1.25 |
| 197804 | -1 | 1.26 |
| 197805 | -1 | 0.99 |
| 197806 | -1 | 0.86 |
| 197807 | -1 | 0.83 |
| 197808 | -1 | 0.37 |
| 197809 | -1 | -0.03 |
| 197810 | -1 | -0.32 |
| 197811 | -1 | -0.95 |
| 197812 | -1 | -1.02 |
| 197901 | -1 | -0.97 |
| 197902 | -1 | -0.96 |
| 197903 | -1 | -0.97 |
| 197904 | -1 | -0.83 |
| 197905 | -1 | -0.99 |
| 197906 | -1 | -1.38 |
| 197907 | -1 | -1.52 |
| 197908 | -1 | -1.91 |
| 197909 | -1 | -2.10 |
| 197910 | -1 | -3.47 |
| 197911 | -1 | -2.53 |
| 197912 | -1 | -3.39 |
| 198001 | 1 | -3.02 |
| 198002 | 1 | -1.72 |
| 198003 | 1 | -4.44 |
| 198004 | 1 | -6.14 |
| 198005 | 1 | -0.80 |
| 198006 | 1 | 0.31 |
| 198007 | 1 | 1.22 |
| 198008 | -1 | 1.49 |
| 198009 | -1 | 0.64 |
| 198010 | -1 | -1.06 |
| 198011 | -1 | -3.17 |
| 198012 | -1 | -6.06 |
| 198101 | -1 | -6.51 |
| 198102 | -1 | -2.74 |
| 198103 | -1 | -1.58 |
| 198104 | -1 | -2.04 |
| 198105 | -1 | -4.42 |
| 198106 | -1 | -5.63 |
| 198107 | 1 | -4.76 |
| 198108 | 1 | -2.88 |
| 198109 | 1 | -0.55 |
| 198110 | 1 | 0.07 |
| 198111 | 1 | 0.08 |
| 198112 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 198201 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 198202 | 1 | -0.35 |
| 198203 | 1 | -0.82 |
| 198204 | 1 | -1.07 |
| 198205 | 1 | -0.83 |
| 198206 | 1 | 0.15 |
| 198207 | 1 | 1.36 |
| 198208 | 1 | 2.93 |
| 198209 | 1 | 2.03 |
| 198210 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 198211 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 198212 | -1 | 1.59 |
| 198301 | -1 | 1.78 |
| 198302 | -1 | 2.21 |
| 198303 | -1 | 1.74 |
| 198304 | -1 | 1.60 |
| 198305 | -1 | 1.75 |
| 198306 | -1 | 1.87 |
| 198307 | -1 | 2.01 |
| 198308 | -1 | 2.29 |
| 198309 | -1 | 2.20 |
| 198310 | -1 | 2.06 |
| 198311 | -1 | 2.35 |
| 198312 | -1 | 2.36 |
| 198401 | -1 | 2.11 |
| 198402 | -1 | 2.25 |
| 198403 | -1 | 2.41 |
| 198404 | -1 | 2.34 |
| 198405 | -1 | 3.09 |
| 198406 | -1 | 2.50 |
| 198407 | -1 | 2.13 |
| 198408 | -1 | 1.08 |
| 198409 | -1 | 1.22 |
| 198410 | -1 | 2.17 |
| 198411 | -1 | 2.14 |
| 198412 | -1 | 3.12 |
| 198501 | -1 | 3.03 |
| 198502 | -1 | 3.01 |
| 198503 | -1 | 3.28 |
| 198504 | -1 | 3.16 |
| 198505 | -1 | 2.88 |
| 198506 | -1 | 2.63 |
| 198507 | -1 | 2.43 |
| 198508 | -1 | 2.43 |
| 198509 | -1 | 2.45 |
| 198510 | -1 | 2.25 |
| 198511 | -1 | 1.73 |
| 198512 | -1 | 0.99 |
| 198601 | -1 | 1.05 |
| 198602 | -1 | 0.84 |
| 198603 | -1 | 0.30 |
| 198604 | -1 | 0.31 |
| 198605 | -1 | 0.86 |
| 198606 | -1 | 0.88 |
| 198607 | -1 | 0.74 |
| 198608 | -1 | 1.00 |
| 198609 | -1 | 1.56 |
| 198610 | -1 | 1.58 |
| 198611 | -1 | 1.21 |
| 198612 | -1 | 0.20 |
| 198701 | -1 | 0.65 |
| 198702 | -1 | 1.15 |
| 198703 | -1 | 1.12 |
| 198704 | -1 | 1.65 |
| 198705 | -1 | 1.76 |
| 198706 | -1 | 1.67 |
| 198707 | -1 | 1.87 |
| 198708 | -1 | 2.03 |
| 198709 | -1 | 2.20 |
| 198710 | -1 | 2.23 |
| 198711 | -1 | 2.17 |
| 198712 | -1 | 2.22 |
| 198801 | -1 | 1.84 |
| 198802 | -1 | 1.63 |
| 198803 | -1 | 1.79 |
| 198804 | -1 | 1.85 |
| 198805 | -1 | 2.00 |
| 198806 | -1 | 1.41 |
| 198807 | -1 | 1.31 |
| 198808 | -1 | 1.25 |
| 198809 | -1 | 0.79 |
| 198810 | -1 | 0.50 |
| 198811 | -1 | 0.61 |
| 198812 | -1 | 0.35 |
| 198901 | -1 | -0.02 |
| 198902 | -1 | -0.19 |
| 198903 | -1 | -0.49 |