| Table 1. Historical Evidence of U.S. Home Price Booms and Bust, 1978-2003 This table displays years of home price booms and busts in metropolitan areas during the period 1978 to 2003. Cities are grouped by geographic region. |
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| Region and City | Boom | Bust | Years Data Not Available |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years Where Real Home Home Prices Increased At Least 30 Percent From 3 Years Earlier | Maximum Real Price Increase |
Years Where Nominal Home Prices Declined From 5 Years Earlier* | Maximum Nominal Price Decline |
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| California | |||||
| Chico, CA | 2003 | +41% | 1978 | ||
| Fresno, CA | 2003 | +37% | |||
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA | 1978, 1979 | +47% | 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 | -19% | |
| 1988,1989, 1990 | +48% | ||||
| 2003 | +35% | ||||
| Madera, CA | 2003 | +35% | 1978-1984 | ||
| Merced, CA | 2002, 2003 | +40% | 1978 | ||
| Modesto, CA | 1990 | +32% | 1978 | ||
| 2002, 2003 | +44% | ||||
| Napa, CA | 1990 | +34% | 1978 | ||
| 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 | +46% | ||||
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 1979 | +39% | 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 | -17% | |
| 1988, 1989, 1990 | +50% | ||||
| 2003 | +35% | ||||
| Redding, CA | 2003 | +39% | 1978-1980 | ||
| Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, CA | 1979 | +40% | 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 | -18% | |
| 2003 | +36% | ||||
| Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA | 1979 | +30% | |||
| 1990 | +32% | ||||
| 2002, 2003 | +40% | ||||
| Salinas, CA | 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 | +49% | |||
| San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA | 1979 | +45% | |||
| 1989 | +32% | ||||
| 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 | +41% | ||||
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 1978, 1979 | +38% | |||
| 1988, 1989, 1990 | +40% | ||||
| 2000, 2001, 2002 | +44% | ||||
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 1978, 1979 | +40% | |||
| 1989, 1990 | +49% | ||||
| 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 | +51% | ||||
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA | 1989, 1990 | +44% | 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 | -16% | |
| 2001, 2002, 2003 | +46% | ||||
| Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA | 1989 | +34% | |||
| 2001, 2002, 2003 | +45% | ||||
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | 1988, 1989, 1990 | +45% | |||
| 2000, 2001, 2002 | +48% | ||||
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA | 1989, 1990 | +41% | |||
| 2000, 2001, 2002 | +48% | ||||
| Stockton, CA | 2001, 2002, 2003 | +38% | |||
| Vallejo-Fairfield, CA | 2001, 2002, 2003 | +45% | |||
| Yuba City, CA | 2003 | +42% | 1978-1986 | ||
| Other Western Locations | |||||
| Bellingham, WA | 1990, 1991, 1992 | +43% | 1978 | ||
| Bend, OR | 1990, 1991 | +32% | 1978-1985 | ||
| Boulder, CO | 1994 | +31% | |||
| 2001 | +31% | ||||
| Corvallis, OR | 1994, 1995 | +36% | 1978-1985 | ||
| Denver-Aurora, CO | 1979 | +34% | |||
| Missoula, MT | 1994 | +30% | 1978-1987 | ||
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA | 1990, 1991 | +36% | 1978-1985 | ||
| Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 1995, 1996 | +30% | |||
| Provo-Orem, UT | 1995, 1996 | +34% | 1978-1982 | ||
| Salt Lake City, UT | 1994, 1995, 1996 | +36% | |||
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 1978, 1979 | +45% | |||
| 1990, 1991 | +34% | ||||
| Oil Patch | |||||
| Anchorage, AK | 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991 | -29% | 1978-1982 | ||
| Austin-Round Rock, TX | 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992 | -25% | |||
| Casper, WY | 1988, 1989, 1990 | -33% | 1978-1982 | ||
| Fort Worth-Arlington TX | 2003 | +37% | |||
| Grand Junction, CO | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | -29% | 1978-1979 | ||
| Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX | 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990 | -22% | |||
| Lafayette, LA | 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991 | -40% | 1978-1980 | ||
| Midland, TX | 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992 | -31% | 1978-1981 | ||
| Odessa, TX | 1989, 1990, 1991 | -22% | 1978-1983 | ||
| Oklahoma City, OK | 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991 | -26% | |||
| San Antonio, TX | 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992 | -17% | 1978 | ||
| New England | |||||
| Barnstable Town, MA | 1987, 1988 | +62% | 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995 | -15% | 1978-1983 |
| 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 | +48% | ||||
| Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | +74% | |||
| 2000, 2001, 2002 | +36% | ||||
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | +71% | |||
| Burlington-South Burlington, VT | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +32% | 1978-1984 | ||
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +61% | 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 | -17% | |
| Manchester-Nashua, NH | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +55% | 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 | -20% | 1978-1982 |
| 2002, 2003 | +35% | ||||
| New Haven-Milford, CT | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +76% | 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 | -16% | |
| Norwich-New London, CT | 1988 | +50% | 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996 | -16% | 1978-1984 |
| Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +47% | 1978-1982 | ||
| Providence-New Bedford-Fall River-Warwick, RI | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989 | +69% | |||
| 2002, 2003 | +39% | ||||
| Springfield, MA | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +63% | 1978-1979 | ||
| Worcester, MA-CT | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | +71% | 1978-1979 | ||
| 2002, 2003 | +34% | ||||
| Other Northeast | |||||
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +49% | 1978-1979 | ||
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 1987, 1988, 1989 | +48% | |||
| Kingston, NY | 2003 | +33% | 1978-1985 | ||
| New York-Northern NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ | 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | +65% | |||
| 2002, 2003 | +32% | ||||
| Ocean City, NJ | 2002, 2003 | +37% | 1978-1985 | ||
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 1987, 1988 | +41% | |||
| Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +63% | 1978-1980 | ||
| 2003 | +35% | ||||
| Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton, PA | 1988 | +31% | 1978-1983 | ||
| Trenton-Ewing, NJ | 1986, 1987, 1988 | +61% | |||
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WV | 1988, 1989 | +31% | |||
| 2003 | +31% | ||||
| Florida | |||||
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 2003 | +31% | |||
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL | 2003 | +36% | |||
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | 2002, 2003 | +32% | |||
| Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL | 2003 | +37% | |||
| Punta Gorda, FL | 2003 | +31% | |||
| Other | |||||
| Honolulu, HI | 1980 | +31% | 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 | -16% | |
| 1989, 1990, 1991 | +60% | ||||
| Niles-Benton Harbor, MI | 1985 | +30% | 1978-1983 | ||
| Peoria, IL | 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 | -17% | 1978 | ||
| * A city must include at least one 5-year period where nominal prices declined by more than 15 percent. Source: FDIC FYI "U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?" February 10. 2005. (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Home Price Index, nominal and real, using Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index less shelter inflation index). |
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