S&P 500 Earnings Growth Has Been Overestimated During The Past Eight Quarters

 

Year

Quarter

Year-over-Year Earnings Forecast for the S&P 500 at the Start of the Quarter

Actual Year-over-Year Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 at the End of the Quarter

Difference Between Actual and Forecast

2000

2

17.6%

21.6%

4.0%

2000

3

18.7%

18.4%

-0.3%

2000

4

15.6%

3.2%

-12.4%

2001

1

5.3%

-6.1%

-11.4%

2001

2

-6.3%

-17.0%

-10.7%

2001

3

-6.2%

-21.6%

-15.4%

2001

4

-8.2%

-21.5%

-13.3%

2002

1

-6.2%

-11.5%

-5.3%

2002

2

2.4%

1.4%

-1.0%

Note: Second quarter 2002 results based on 494 companies reporting as of August 30.
Source: Thomson First Call; FDIC