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FDIC Banking Review

Figure 8.
Banks That Failed, Multistate and Bivariate Models
(Predictions of Unordered Multistate and Bivariate Models)
Year Actual Binary Unordered
1991 33 41.6 41.1
1992 16 12.9 13.1
1993 6 9.5 8.6
1994 1 5.2 5.6
1995 0 4.1 4.0
1996 1 0.9 0.1
1997 0 0.4 0.0
1998 3 1.7 1.4
1999 2 2.6 5.2
2000 1 2.1 1.5
2001 2 1.9 1.9
2002 0 1.3 1.4
Note: One-year-ahead forecasts versus actual



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